This period of disaster cast a gloom over the whole nation, which grew sullen and determined, and, when at last the tide began to turn, the sudden lifting of the burden immediately metamorphosed a silent depressed crowd into a cheering multitude, which on Mafeking day turned London into a veritable pandemonium; but the depression caused by unpleasant surprises was intense, and, therefore, the joy at finding the incubus gone was the more irrepressible. Hence the disorderly scenes upon the day in question. A reaction after the period of suspense was inevitable, and the greater the gloom the more violent would be the excitement that followed when the first ray of sunshine pierced the mist. Yet how little was this understood at the time.
That financial barometer—the Bank rate—began to reflect the political situation early in October. Our state of unpreparedness was a by-word on the Continent, and when in September, 1899, the Boers displayed an unyielding attitude, which was at first mistaken for bravado, our overweening confidence in the British soldier blinded our eyes to the imperfections of our fighting machine. The Continent, which was better informed than the British Government, believed that the Boers were determined. On the 3rd October, when the Free State burghers occupied Van Reenen's Pass, the Bank advanced its rate to four-and-a-half per cent.; on the 5th October the rate was five per cent., and on the 30th November six per cent., where it remained until the 11th January, 1900, when five per cent. was recorded.
But if the Government was unprepared the Bank of England was not, and from start to finish, by a judicious use of its rate of discount, an adequate supply of bullion was maintained in the Issue Department. Long experience had taught its lesson, and our financial machine, which was in a good state of preparedness, worked without a hitch. Who can doubt that if our fighting machine had been as ably handled, it would have done its work well from first to last?
There is also another point which is well worth attention. If our banks neglect to keep good reserves, a panic results immediately there is any unusual demand upon their resources, and the cost of a panic soon convinces their directors that it is cheaper to be always prepared. Will the expenditure of some £230,000,000 teach the Government the same simple truth? If we must have an army, it is madness not to keep it—as our banks are kept—ready. Mr. Kruger and his advisers did not consider the latent potentiality of the British fighting machine. They ascertained its state of preparedness to strike at a moment's notice, and, seeing that it was unprepared, the Boers wisely struck the first blow, hoping to drive the English into the sea before the machine could be adapted to a new environment. On the other hand, they failed to realise the resources of the Empire. Had the Boers believed that the British could land an army of even 150,000 men in South Africa, in all probability there would have been no war. The Government, which was caught unprepared, had to pour out money like water, because it had neglected to take one of the simplest business precautions—to keep the army ready.
On 31st May, 1902, peace was declared, and now the country has to face a domestic problem. In 1899 trade was good, and in 1900 the prices of commodities were at their zenith; but during 1901 a reaction set in, and at the present time trade is certainly not active. Reservists are arriving from South Africa in large numbers; and, as the labour market is already depressed, a number of them are sure to experience considerable difficulty in finding employment. War is certainly not a business that civilises, and if a man has once tasted blood, in however just a cause, it is difficult to believe that life will seem quite so sacred to him again. Should the times become really bad, these men who have returned from the front, and who cannot again find a place in civil life, will turn instinctively to the weapons upon which they have learned to depend. Consequently, should there be a severe depression in trade, an epidemic of crime is one of those possibilities which may send a thrill of horror through the country.
Since September, 1899, the money market has certainly had to contend with great difficulties, and a system which has proved itself more than equal to the strain surely cannot be so undesirable as certain critics would have us believe. Again, the more the public understands the system, the less is the danger of panic; for it must be apparent to every man who reads this book that, if he study his own interests, he will select a strong bank, and, having taken that precaution, he will carefully refrain from rushing for his deposit during a time of stress.
CHAPTER XVI.
The Banks and the Public.