This case is to be distinguished from the previous one really only by the decided seriousness of the situation it reveals. In this case it is presumed that a decided judgment may be made that the price level must be greatly lowered before business operations can revive and be carried on with confidence in steady markets. In the previous one it is presumed that a decided judgment can be formed to the effect that the shock to business will be satisfactorily gotten over with just that reduction of prices that liquidation and a more careful conducting of business operations will bring about. The difference is, in the last analysis, one of degree.
A price decline that is in reality a movement from a state of depreciated paper money back to a gold standard may be looked upon as a variant of the third case. For it is obvious that if the depreciation is extensive, the decline in the price level necessary to the attainment of the gold basis must also be extensive.
There is a fourth possible case which will be described, but will not be followed up, since it is not applicable to the United States at the present time. It is the case of a country whose chief industries are export industries—the prices of the products of which are determined by world competition. This case is complex and not to be analyzed by a general rule. A few observations may be made. It is conceivable that a situation should arise in which a policy of wage reduction is expedient because the export industries are very gravely threatened by foreign competition. In such a situation it may be argued that any genuine necessity for a reduction of wages would be manifested by the pressure of the banking system, because of the outflow of gold that would occur consequent to a great falling off of exports. But, as we have seen during the war, such a banking situation may be avoided for a number of years by such devices as foreign loans, and the industries in question would decline in the meantime. On the other hand, any policy of general wage reduction could only be undertaken with caution. Situations of the sort described tend to call out the reserve energies of a country. They are always present to a greater or less extent.
So much then in answer to the first question—as to whether there was any reason for wage reduction during periods of declining prices. The second question then presents itself—on what basis should such reductions as are advocated be arranged? On which subject the conclusions reached in the course of discussion of wage adjustment to upward price movement are applicable. These conclusions will be recalled at various points further on in the book.
FOOTNOTES:
[58] Nor has it for that matter been applied with consistency in Great Britain. See the Minority Report of the War Cabinet Committee on "Women's Wages," 1918, page 262.
[59] Webb, "Industrial Democracy," Doctrine of the Vested Interests, pages 562-572, 595.
[60] The data published in the monthly U. S. Labor Bulletin covers most of the articles which are at all important in the wage earners' budget. The collection of such data, however, has remained spasmodic up to the present. See the article by H. S. Hanna in the October, 1919, issue of the Monthly Review of the U. S. Department of Labor. The Sumner Committee Report on the "Cost of Living in Great Britain" 1917 (CD 8980), covered food, rent, clothing, fares, fuel and light, insurance, and sundries. Data was collected for skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled labor.
[61] See pages 89-91, Chapter V.
[62] See Chapter XII.