Inasmuch as Bonaparte held the crossings of the Po between Pavia and Cremona, he could easily have assembled the greater part of his army on the south side of the Po, and have brought greatly superior numbers against Melas. But Bonaparte feared that, if he adopted this plan, Melas might cross the Po and make his escape by way of Pavia and Milan. It will be remembered that, just prior to the battle of Marengo, Bonaparte was completely in the dark as to the movements of his adversary. He did not know but that the Austrian commander was making preparations to escape. As a matter of fact Bonaparte had lost touch of his enemy. He was in a state of confusion and uncertainty as to the intentions of Melas. He could not understand why the Austrians did not march eastward from Alessandria and attack the French, unless it was because they were about to attempt their escape by way of Pavia and Milan, or by way of Genoa. Had Bonaparte known the true state of affairs; had he known that the Austrians would soon cross the Bormida to attack the French, undoubtedly he would have assembled on the battle-field the ten thousand men stationed along the Ticino. That he did not do so was an error; perhaps, under the circumstances, an unavoidable one, but nevertheless an error, for he was outnumbered at Marengo when he might easily have outnumbered his adversary. In fact, nearly all his operations after the battle of Montebello are open to criticism. They are not up to the standard of the ordinary operations of Napoleon. His forces were scattered when they might have been united. He attempted too much. In order to win everything, he incurred unnecessary hazard. In order to prevent the Austrians from escaping, he took too great a risk on the battle-field.
It will be borne in mind that it is easy for any one, having a fair knowledge of the science of war, to point out, after the event, the mistakes that were made. During active operations confusion and doubt are constant factors that cannot be ignored by a commander. Neither Bonaparte nor his officers knew, or could know, the facts as we know them to-day. Thus the military student is able, after months of study, to point out the errors made by a great master of war. He approaches the subject from a different point of view from that of the commanding general. He is cognizant of facts, many of which at the time were unknown to the head of the army. He writes in the light; Napoleon marched in the darkness. He has the details of the campaign at his finger's end; Napoleon had to form his conclusions from the doubtful information at hand. Thus it is that mediocrity can criticise what genius alone can conceive and execute.
Again: it must be remembered that the really great soldier is not he who never makes a mistake, but he who in the aggregate makes the fewest mistakes. In war the conditions are such that a commander cannot by any possibility always know the truth. He must often decide momentous questions on the spur of the moment, basing his decisions on unreliable information obtained mostly from reports and rumors. "Speak to me of a general who has made no mistakes in war," says Turenne, "and you speak of one who has seldom made war." "In the profession of war," says Napoleon, "the game is always to the one who makes the fewest mistakes."
If Bonaparte had withdrawn all his forces to the south side of the Po, Melas might have made his escape by way of Pavia and Milan, but even then Bonaparte would have won northern Italy without a battle. Had Melas taken this course, it is evident that he would have severed the communications of Bonaparte with Switzerland. Though the loss of the French communications would doubtless have inconvenienced Bonaparte, it would not have put a stop to his active operations, nor have proved fatal to his army; for he could then have united his forces with those of Suchet, and have at once established another line of communication with France by way of Nice. On this point General Hamley, one of the greatest of military critics, comments as follows:—
"There was a special circumstance in this campaign which should have induced Napoleon to bring his whole army to the south bank. For if Melas moved through Milan he would leave the country south of the Po clear for Napoleon to establish another and better communication with France by the south of the Apennines, and, moreover, a junction with Suchet would be effected, and the territory which was to be the prize of the campaign would be lost to the Austrians. But Napoleon could not be satisfied to let the enemy escape, even at such a sacrifice of territory, and therefore it was that he left the Ticino guarded."
In studying these operations, one cannot but be struck by the fact that Bonaparte seemed extremely anxious to retain his communications with Switzerland. The arrangement of his forces was admirable for this purpose. Even when he fought at Marengo, he had unobstructed communication across the Po to Milan, and thence to the St. Gothard Pass. Rather than weaken his communications by withdrawing his forces from the Ticino, he seemed to prefer the hazard of battle with a superior enemy. In a critical examination of these operations, it is almost impossible not to come to the conclusion that Bonaparte had a good reason for holding on to his communications with Switzerland. Being at the head of the French government, he had control of the armies of the Republic. He had crossed the Alps to conquer. Much depended on his success, for his own destiny hung in the balance. Undoubtedly he intended to return to France triumphant, whatever should be the cost. He was bold enough to stake all on a single throw—to hazard his own and his country's fate on a single battle. If he should be defeated at Marengo and be driven out of the valley of the Po, might he not retreat through Switzerland into Germany with the remnants of his forces? Might he not unite them with Moreau's army, crush Kray in the valley of the Danube, march on the Austrian capital, and "conquer Italy at Vienna"? Is it not possible that this may have been the reason why he held on so persistently to his communications with Switzerland?
In this discussion it has just been assumed that Bonaparte might have been driven out of the valley of the Po. But this assumption is altogether improbable. Even if Bonaparte had been defeated at Marengo, the chances of his success on another field in Italy would still have been greatly in his favor. It needs but a glance at the situation to substantiate this statement. It is evident that if Melas had been victorious at Marengo, he would have attempted to open up his communications with Mantua, by marching eastward from Alessandria through the Stradella Pass. His victorious troops would have numbered at the most but twenty-three thousand men. Doubtless Bonaparte, while holding the Stradella Pass with the detachment already there, would have fallen back across the Po with the remnants of his defeated forces, numbering not less than eighteen thousand men; and would have united them with his columns on the north side of the river. In this way he could have collected in a short time on the north bank of the Po an army of about forty thousand men to oppose the twenty-three thousand under Melas. In this position the French communications would have been in no danger; but the Austrians, in order to recover their communications, would have been obliged to force the intrenched camp of the Stradella; which operation would have given Bonaparte time to cross the Po and attack the Austrians in flank. Having the advantage of position and an overwhelming superiority in numbers, Bonaparte would undoubtedly have crushed and destroyed the army of Melas. If this statement seems too strong, reflect a moment, remember that during his entire career Napoleon never lost a battle in which he outnumbered his adversary.
In the result of the victory at Marengo is seen the brilliancy of Bonaparte's strategy. Having finally won the battle, northern Italy as far as the Mincio at once fell into his hands. Notwithstanding the fact that he failed to outnumber his enemy on the battle-field of Marengo, his strategy was such that he could fight there with the assurance that he would lose little if he were defeated, but would gain much if he were victorious.
On the other hand, Melas fought the battle, knowing that he must conquer or lose all. Already his communications were in the hands of Bonaparte. Nothing short of overwhelming victory could wrest them from the French. Though Melas did not know the number of French troops in his front, yet, having once decided upon the course to take, he made an heroic effort to save his army. Courageously he faced the inevitable. Brave man that he was, when the time came he fought as a soldier should fight.
After the battle of Montebello, Bonaparte united near the Stradella Pass all his forces south of the Po. Here he collected twenty-nine thousand men. Being deficient in cavalry and artillery, while Melas was well supplied with both, Bonaparte decided to occupy this strong position, where his flanks would be protected by the Po on one side and by the spurs of the Apennines on the other. He had every reason to believe that Melas would shortly advance from Alessandria, cross the Scrivia, and attempt to cut his way through the French army. If, therefore, Bonaparte should push westward from the Stradella, he must expect to meet the Austrians in the plain lying between the Scrivia and Bormida rivers. Here, however, the superiority of the Austrians in cavalry and artillery would give them a great tactical advantage. On the plain their artillery would have full sweep, and their cavalry could manœuvre with freedom against the flanks of the French. Moreover, Bonaparte believed that the Austrian forces, under the immediate command of Melas, outnumbered those of the French.