There was not enough profit in the margin of 1871. Now what was the profit? According to the best figures accessible of the cost of oil refining at that day, the man who sold a gallon of oil at 24¼ cents (the average official price for that year) made a profit of not less than 1¼ cents—52½ cents a barrel.[[144]] Josiah Lombard, a large independent refiner of New York City, when questioned by the Congressional Committee which, in 1872, looked into Mr. Rockefeller’s scheme for making oil dearer, said that his concern was making money on this margin. “We could ship oil and do very well.” A. H. Tack told the Congressional Committee of 1888, which was trying to find out why he had been obliged to go out of the refining business in 1873, that he could have made twelve per cent. on his capital with a profit of ten cents a barrel. Scofield, Shurmer and Teagle, of Cleveland, made a profit of thirty-four cents a barrel in 1875, and cleared $40,000 on an investment of $65,000. Fifty-two cents a barrel profit then was certainly not to be despised. The South Improvement Company gentlemen were not modest in the matter of profits, however, and they launched the scheme whose basic principles have figured so largely in the development of the Standard Oil Trust.

The success which Mr. Rockefeller had in getting the refiners of the country under his control, and the methods he took to do it, we have traced. It will be remembered that for a brief period in 1872 and 1873 he held together an association pledged to curtail the output of oil, but that in July, 1873, it went to pieces.[[145]] It will be recalled that three years after, in 1875, he put a second association into operation, which in a year claimed a control of ninety per cent. of the refining power of the country, and in less than four years controlled ninety-five per cent.[[146]] This large percentage Mr. Rockefeller has not been able to keep, but from 1879 to the present day there has not been a time when he has not controlled over eighty per cent. of the oil manufacturing of the country. To-day he controls about eighty-three per cent.

Now it is generally conceded that the man or men who control over seventy per cent. of a commodity control its price—within limits, very strict limits, too, such is the force of economic laws. In the case of the Standard Oil Company the control is so complete that the price of oil, both crude and refined, is actually issued from its headquarters.

Now, with the help of the chart, let us see what Mr. Rockefeller and his colleagues have been able to do from 1872 to 1904 with their power over the price of oil. The first association which worked was brought about late in 1872. What happened? Prices for refined oil were run up from 23 cents a gallon in June to 27 cents a gallon in November, and the margin increased from 13.6 cents to 17.7 cents. From a profit of about 1½ cents a gallon they rose to one of over 4 cents. Unfortunately, however, the refiners of that period were not educated to the self-restraint necessary to carry out this scheme. They very soon failed to keep down their output of oil and overstocked the market, and the whole machine went to pieces. Mr. Rockefeller had been able to make oil dear for a short time, but only for a short time. Worse than that, what he had been able to do brought severe public condemnation. It had, indeed, produced exactly the result the economists tell us too high prices must produce—limitation of the market and stimulation of competition in rival goods. Mr. Rockefeller’s second scheme to work out the good of the oil business by making oil dear resulted in decreasing oil exports for the first time since the discovery of oil.[[147]] It also increased one of the chief grievances of the American refinery—that was, the exporting of the crude oil to be refined in Europe. Where the exports of crude had been something over eleven million gallons in 1871, they were now over sixteen millions. And it set the shale-oil factories of Scotland to work merrily. It was cheaper for Great Britain to use oil from Scottish shales than to buy oil sold under Mr. Rockefeller’s great plan for benefiting the oil business. So for the time the scheme fell down.

As the diagram shows, the margin dropped rapidly back after this brief success from eighteen to thirteen cents, nor did it stay there. With the return of competition, in the fall of 1873, it continued to drop rapidly. By the end of the year it was down to eleven cents; by the end of 1874 to nine. What had done it? A decline in expenses, coming from the multiplication of pipe-lines, reduction in freight charges, and free competition in the markets. Nothing else.

1866 TO 1872.
Fragment of oil chart, showing decline of margin between crude and refined oil in the first seven years after the pipe-line was proved practical. Notice sudden rise in refined oil in 1872 caused by the first Refiners’ Association.

1872 TO 1877.
Fragment of oil chart, showing decline in margin after the failure of the Refiners’ Association in 1872, and the abnormal increase in the margin in 1876, when the next combination was perfected.

In spite of the obvious economic effects of his scheme in 1872 Mr. Rockefeller did not give up his theory that to make oil dear was for the good of the business. He went steadily ahead, developing quietly his plan of a union of all refiners, pledged to limit their output of oil to an allotment he should assign, to accept the freight rates he should arrange for, to buy and sell at the prices he set. It was a year before the alliance was nearly enough complete to make its power felt. By the summer of 1876 it claimed to have nine-tenths of the refiners in the country in line. At that time a situation rose in the crude oil market well calculated to help it in its intention to raise prices. This was a falling off in the production of crude oil. An advance in its price had come in the summer of 1876. Refined had, of course, responded to the rise. But as the fall came on and the exporters prepared to load their cargoes, the syndicate demanded a price for refined much above that for which the market price of crude called. The embargo which followed has already been described in Chapter VII of this narrative. It was as straight a hold-up as our commercial history offers, rich as it is in that sort of operations. From October to February refined oil was held at a price purely arbitrary. It was the first fruits of the Great Scheme.