That particular chromosome, however, contained at least 500 genes capable of undergoing a lethal mutation. If each of those genes is equally likely to undergo such a mutation, then the chance that any one particular gene is lethal is one out of 200 × 500, or 1 out of 100,000.
This is a typical mutation rate for a gene in higher organisms generally, as far as geneticists can tell (though the rates are lower among bacteria and viruses). Naturally, a chance for mutation takes place every time a new individual is born. Fruit flies have many more offspring per year than human beings, since their generations are shorter and they produce more young at a time. For that reason, though the mutation rate may be the same in fruit flies as in man, many more actual mutations are produced per unit time in fruit flies than in men.
This does not mean that the situation may be ignored in the case of man. Suppose the rate for production of a particular deleterious gene in man is 1 out of 100,000. It is estimated that a human being has at least 10,000 different genes, and therefore the chance that at least one of the genes in a sex cell is deleterious is 10,000 out of 100,000 or 1 out of 10.
Furthermore, it is estimated that the number of gene mutations that are weakly deleterious are four times as numerous as those that are strongly deleterious or lethal. The chances that at least one gene in a sex cell is at least weakly deleterious then would be 4 + 1 out of 10, or 1 out of 2.
Naturally, these deleterious genes are not necessarily spread out evenly among human beings with one to a sex cell. Some sex cells will be carrying more than one, thus increasing the number that may be expected to carry none at all. Even so, it is supposed that very nearly half the sex cells produced by humanity carry at least one deleterious gene.
Even though only half the sex cells are free of deleterious genes, it is still possible to produce a satisfactory new generation of men. Yet one can see that the genetic load is quite heavy and that anything that would tend to increase it would certainly be undesirable, and perhaps even dangerous.
We tend to increase the genetic load by reducing the rate at which deleterious genes are removed, that is, by taking care of the sick and retarded, and by trying to prevent discomfort and death at all levels.
There is, however, no humane alternative to this. What’s more, it is, by and large, only those with slightly deleterious genes who are preserved genetically. It is those persons with nearsightedness, with diabetes, and so on, who, with the aid of glasses, insulin, or other props, can go on to live normal lives and have children in the usual numbers. Those with strongly deleterious genes either die despite all that can be done for them even today or, at the least, do not have a chance to have many children.
The danger of an increase in the genetic load rests more heavily, then, at the other end—at measures that (usually inadvertently or unintentionally) increase the rate of production of mutant genes. It is to this matter we will now turn.