§ 5. It ought to be clearly understood that the real congestion with which we are concerned, the over-supply, does not chiefly consist of goods in their raw or finished state passing through the machine on their way to the consumer. The economic diagnosis is sometimes confused upon this point, speaking of the increased productive power of machinery as if it continued to pour forth an unchecked flood of goods in excess of possible consumption. This shows a deep misunderstanding of the malady. Only in its early stages does it take this form. When in any trade the producing power of machinery is in excess of the demand at a remunerative price, the series of processes through which the raw material passes on its way to the consumer soon become congested with an over-supply. This, however, need not be very large, nor does it long continue to grow. So long as the production of these excessive wares continues, though we have a growing glut of them, the worst features of industrial disease do not appear; profits are low, perhaps business is carried on at a loss, but factories, workshops, mines, railways, etc., are in active operation; wages may be reduced, but there is plenty of employment. It is when this congestion of goods has clogged the wheels of the industrial machine, retarded the rate of production, when the weaker manufacturers can no longer get credit at the bank, can no longer meet their engagements, and collapse, when the stronger firms are forced to close some of their mills, to shut down the less productive mines, to work short hours, to economise in every form of labour, that depression of trade assumes its more enduring and injurious shape. The condition now is not that of an increasing glut of goods; the existing glut continues to block the avenues of commerce and to check further production, but it does not represent the real burden of over-supply. The true excess now shows itself in the shape of idle machinery, closed factories, unworked mines, unused ships and railway trucks. It is the auxiliary capital that represents the bulk of over-supply, and whose idleness signifies the enforced unemployment of large masses of labour. It is machinery, made and designed to increase the flow of productive goods, that has multiplied too fast for the growth of consumption. This machinery does not continue in full use, a large proportion of it is not required to assist in producing the quantity of consumptive goods which can find a market, and must of necessity stand idle; it represents a quantity of useless forms of capital, over-supply, and its unused productive power represents an incomparably larger amount of potential over-supply of goods. Economic forces are at work preventing the continuation of the use of this excessive machinery; if it were used in defiance of these forces, if its owners could afford to keep it working, there would be no market for the goods it would turn out, and these too would swell the mass of over-supply.
GENERAL FOOD PRICES.
MINERAL PRICES.
§ 6. The general relation of modern Machinery to Commercial Depression is found to be as follows:—Improved machinery of manufacture and transport enables larger and larger quantities of raw material to pass more quickly and more cheaply through the several processes of production. Consumers do not, in fact, increase their consumption as quickly and to an equal extent. Hence the onward flow of productive goods is checked in one or more of the manufacturing stages, or in the hands of the merchant, or even in the retail shop. This congestion of the channels of production automatically checks production, depriving of all use a large quantity of the machinery, and a large quantity of labour. The general fall of money income which has necessarily followed from a fall of prices, uncompensated by a corresponding expansion of sales, induces a shrinkage of consumption. Under depressed trade, while the markets continue to be glutted with unsold goods, only so much current production is maintained as will correspond to the shrunk consumption of the depressed community. Before the turn in the commercial tide, current production even falls below the level of current consumption, thus allowing for the gradual passage into consumption of the glut of goods which had congested the machine. After the congestion which had kept prices low is removed, prices begin to rise, demand is more active at each point of industry, and we see the usual symptoms of reviving trade.
TEXTILE PRICES.
This is an accurate account of the larger phenomena visible in the commercial world in a period of disturbance. When the disease is at its worst, the activity of producer and consumer at its lowest, we have the functional condition of under-production due to the pressure of a quantity of over-supply, and we have a corresponding state of under-consumption.
§ 7. Machinery thus figures as the efficient cause of industrial disease, but the real responsibility does not rest on the shoulders of the inventor of new machinery, or of the manufacturer, but of the consumer.