The Tsar to the Kaiser,
Peterhof,
July 30th, 1.20 p.m.
From my heart I thank you for your speedy reply. I am this evening sending Tatisheff with instructions. The military measures now coming into operation were decided upon five days ago for reasons of defence against Austria's preparations. Most heartily do I trust that these measures will in no way influence your position as mediator, which I value highly. We need your strong pressure on Austria to secure an understanding with us.
(Signed) Nicholas.
The two final telegrams have been given on pp. 148-150 of "How the War Began."
On July 28th, a confidential communication was sent by the Imperial Chancellor to the Governments of the various Federal States of Germany. After recapitulating the story of the quarrel between Austria and Servia, it proceeds as follows:
There are certain Russian voices accordingly who hold that it is a self-evident right and the business of Russia to intervene actively on Servia's behalf in the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Servia. The Novoye Vremya actually thinks that the responsibility for the European conflagration that would result from such action on the part of Russia can be thrown upon Germany, in so far as Germany does not cause Austria-Hungary to give way. But here the Russian Press is looking at things upside down. It was not Austria-Hungary which started the conflict with Servia, but Servia, which, by its unscrupulous encouragement of Greater Servian aspirations, even within Austria-Hungary, endangered the very existence of the Monarchy, and created a condition of things which finally found expression in the atrocious deed of Sarajevo. If Russia believes it must intervene in the conflict on behalf of Servia, its right is no doubt good, so far as it goes. But in doing so it must know that it thereby takes over as its own all Servia's endeavours to undermine the existence of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy, and that on it will rest the sole responsibility if the Austro-Servian business, which all the other great Powers desire to localise, leads to a European war. Russia's responsibility is clear, and the heavier in that Count Berchtold has officially informed Russia that there is no intention of territorial acquisition at Servia's expense, or any tampering with the continued existence of the Servian kingdom—merely a desire for peace from the Servian machinations which imperil its existence.
The attitude of the Imperial Government in this question is clear. The final goal of the agitation carried on by the Pan-Slavists against Austria-Hungary is, by breaking down the Danube Monarchy, to burst or weaken the Triple Alliance, and subsequently to isolate the German Empire completely. Our own interest, therefore, calls us to the side of Austria-Hungary. Moreover, the duty of preserving Europe, so far as may be possible, from universal war, likewise directs us to support the endeavour to localise the conflict, thereby adhering to that straight line of policy which we have now pursued with success for forty-four years in the interest of the maintenance of European peace. If, however, contrary to what we hope, the interference (Eingreifen) of Russia causes an extension of the conflagration, faithful to our alliance, we should have to support the neighbour Monarchy with the whole might of the Empire. Only under compulsion shall we grasp the sword, but if we do, it will be with the calm consciousness that we are guiltless of the disaster which a war must bring upon the peoples of Europe.
This "calm consciousness" does not seem to have been disturbed by the reflection that in the spring of 1913, when Europe appeared to be settling down to a period of peace and prosperity after the Tripoli and Balkan wars, the German Government suddenly startled the whole world by imposing a special war levy of £50,000,000, and by increasing the peace strength of the German army to 870,000 men. Under the Quinquennial Army Law of 1905, the peace footing of the German army was largely increased and reached a total of 505,839 men in 1911. A new Quinquennial Law was voted by the Reichstag in 1911, and if it had been carried into effect the army would have had the strength of 515,221 in 1915-6. This, one would have thought, was surely a sufficient peace establishment; but in 1912 a still further Army Law provided for new units and also for increases in the peace effective. Hardly were the provisions of this law being applied when the special measure of 1913 was passed. The German army, in other words, rose from a peace strength of 505,000 men (excluding the one-year volunteers) in 1911 to a peace strength of about 512,000 in 1912, and a peace strength of 870,000 in the spring of 1914. There were no corresponding increases in any European army to call for this drastic strengthening of the German forces. Indeed, the French army had rather become reduced in numbers in consequence of the two years' service; and the Balkan States were exhausted. The Servia which had advanced against Turkey in the autumn of 1912 was a very much more powerful country than the Servia with which Austria picked a quarrel in 1914.