The following short table, giving the import figures for 1911 and 1913, will show to what extent Germany is indebted to foreign countries for some common grain and cereal products:
| 1911. | 1913. | |
| (£ sterling.) | (£ sterling.) | |
| Wheat | 19,943,750 | 21,472,850 |
| Barley | 23,105,250 | 20,347,750 |
| Maize | 4,336,000 | 5,309,600 |
| Rye | 3,800,600 | 4,100,200 |
| Oats | 3,742,800 | 3,946,300 |
| Rice | 4,408,200 | 3,926,000 |
| Cocoa | 2,775,300 | 2,796,000 |
| Coffee | 12,578,450 | 12,450,500 |
| Eggs | 8,567,900 | 4,504,800 |
With her coast blockaded by the British Fleet; France, Belgium, and Russia hostile; and squadrons of the Navy alert for prizes in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, it is not likely that Germany can rely upon any imports of food until the war is over. Austria-Hungary, at grips with Servia, will require for her own use all the food she can get, even if the Straits of Otranto were open. The hostility of Servia prevents any possibility of food being imported via Greece.
On this point a remarkable article, obviously inspired, and showing clearly enough why the Teutonic Powers were paying so much attention to the Balkans, appeared in the Frankfurter Zeitung so far back as January 7th, 1914. The writer said:
The countries comprising the Triple Alliance are changing daily from agricultural States to industrial States; and they are more and more compelled to depend upon the uninterrupted importation of their raw materials. A war with England, France, and Russia at the same time appears, fortunately, to be ever more improbable; but the possibility of such a conflict cannot be excluded, and far-seeing statesmen must reckon with it. The Triple Alliance countries, which are compelled to have recourse to large armies, cannot hope to compete successfully with the fleets of England and France on the high seas. In the event of a struggle, therefore, our oversea imports would, in a short time, be done away with, and our industries would languish for want of raw material. As things stand to-day, it is not merely the lack of wheat and meat that would drive the country to destruction. Coal and iron and heaven knows what else have also become essential to us. Where, then, shall the Triple Alliance countries look for their raw material if the sea routes are cut off? There is only one means of land communication, and it leads through Roumania, Bulgaria, and Turkey into Asia Minor. It follows that the Triple Alliance can never see this route barricaded by hostile States; the Triplice must keep this route open at all costs.... The German military mission in Constantinople is not merely helping to reorganise the Turkish army out of pure joy; it must, at the same time, serve both Turkey and the German Empire. One should also take notice of the determination of Germany and Austria not to consent to the proposal for the inter-nationalisation of the stretch of the Orient Railway between Adrianople and Constantinople. The States lying between the eastern border of Hungary and Asia Minor have, indeed, no choice; they must be the friends and allies of the Triple Alliance; or they must reckon with the unflinching hostility of the Triple Alliance in any conflict which threatens their independence. Austria, too, has no choice. Either the countries on the Lower Danube must be her friends, or she must seek to annihilate them. It is as Napoleon said: "the Power that commands Constantinople can command the whole world, provided that it can maintain itself there." And when Bismarck said that the whole Balkan Peninsula was not worth the bones of a Pomeranian grenadier, he could not have foreseen that this territory would one day become so essential a route for German imports that we should not, if necessary, shirk a conflict with Russia to maintain our freedom of trade there.
Servia, in this astonishing declaration, was not mentioned by name; but the hint to both her and Russia was sufficiently broad. Germany and Austria are cut off completely by the hostility of Servia; and, if Russia had not intervened, it is clear that this "means of land communication" would have been kept free from a "barricade," if any Power had thought of putting one up. In this connection it may be recalled that the White Paper relating to the European Crisis (Cd. 7,467) contains a significant telegram from Mr. H.D. Beaumont, of the International Financial Commission, to Sir Edward Grey:
Constantinople,
July 29th, 1914.
I understand that the designs of Austria may extend considerably beyond the Sanjak and a punitive occupation of Servian territory. I gathered this from a remark let fall by the Austrian Ambassador here, who spoke of the deplorable economic situation of Salonika under Greek administration, and of the assistance on which the Austrian army could count from Mussulman population discontented with Servian rule.