March first we go on a milk and butter card regime. I have put the Polish question (food) up to Zimmermann, and asked informally whether proper guarantees against the direct or indirect taking of food and money from Poland will be stopped, if relief is sent; no answer yet.
In spite of what I was told by certain exalted personages last autumn, I think that if the war continues much longer the President will be welcomed as a mediator. In fact, there are a number of cartoons and articles appearing in the newspapers which, in tone, are against the President because he does not insist on peace.
I think that we may soon look for a very strong German attack on the West Front, an endeavour to break through before the time when the French and English are contemplating their offensive, which is probably some time in March.
At or about the same time there will probably be great Zeppelin attacks on London and on other English centres. It is reported that in their next offensive the Germans will use a more deadly form of poison gas.
I had the grippe, went to Partenkirchen for a few days, but the first night in country air since July, 1914, was too much for me and filled me with such energy that I tried skiing, fell down and broke my collar-bone, came to Berlin and can sit at my desk, but am very uncomfortable.
I think Germany was about to offer to sink no merchant ships without notice and putting crews, etc., in safety, if England would disarm merchant ships, but now, since the President's letter to Stone, both the Chancellor and von Jagow say they are convinced that America has a secret understanding with England and that nothing can be arranged.
Captain Persius points out in to-day's Tageblatt that it is not submarines alone that are now, without notice, going to sink armed merchant ships, but cruisers, etc., will take a hand.
It is reported that the Kaiser went to Wilhelmshafen to warn submarine commanders to be careful and that submarines will hunt in pairs, one standing ready to torpedo while the other warns. The German losses at Verdun are small as artillery fire annihilated enemy first. I think an attack will be made now in another part of the front.
Germany has forbidden the import of many articles of luxury; this is to keep exchange more normal and keep gold in the country. This probably will continue after the war.
Some newspaper men just in from Verdun report the Germans saving men—losses small—going at it with artillery, probably over 1,000 guns, and making a slow and almost irresistible push. Some military attachés think there may be a strong attack somewhere else on the front.