There was a belief in Germany that the French nation was degenerate and corrupt and unprepared for war. This belief became conviction when, in the debates of the French Senate, Senator Humbert, early in 1914, publicly exposed what he claimed to be the weakness and unpreparedness of France.
Prince Lichnowsky, the German Ambassador in London, certainly reported to his government that England did not wish to enter the war. He claims now that he did not mean that England would not fight at all events, but undoubtedly the German Foreign Office believed that England would remain out of the war. The raising of the Ulster army by Sir Edward Carson, one of the most gigantic political bluffs in all history, which had no more revolutionary or military significance than a torchlight parade during one of our presidential campaigns, was reported by the German spies as a real and serious revolutionary movement; and, of course, it was believed by the Germans that Ireland would rise in general rebellion the moment that war was declared. In the summer of 1914 Russia was believed to be on the edge of revolution.
As I have said in a previous chapter, the movement against militarism, culminating in the extraordinary vote in the Reichstag against the government at the time of the Zabern Affair, warned the government and military people that the mass of Germans were coming to their senses and were preparing to shake off the bogy of militarism and fear, which had roosted so long on their shoulders like a Prussian old-man-of-the-sea. The Pan-Germans and the Annexationists were hot for war. The people alive could recall only three wars, the war against Denmark in 1864, which was settled in a few days and added the duchies of Schleswig and Holstein to the Prussian crown, and the war of 1866 in which Bavaria, Baden, Württemberg, Hesse-Darmstadt, and Saxony were defeated, when the Austrian kingdom of Hanover disappeared and the territories of Hesse-Cassel and Nassau, and the free city of Frankfort were added to Prussia. This war, from its declaration to the battle of Königgratz in which the Austrians were completely defeated, lasted only two weeks. In 1870 France was defeated within a month and a half after the opening of hostilities; so that the Kaiser was implicitly believed when, on the first day of the war, he appeared on the balcony of the palace and told the crowds who were keen for war, that "before the leaves have fallen from the trees you will be back in your homes." The army and all Germany believed him and believed, too, that a few short weeks would see the destruction of France and the consequent seizure of her rich colonies; that Russia could then be struck a good quick blow before she could concentrate her army and resources; that England would remain neutral; and that Germany would consequently become, if not the actual owner, at least the dictator of the world. Some one has since said that the Emperor must have meant pine trees.
Working ever in the dark, either owning or influencing newspapers, the great munition and arms factory of the Krupp's insidiously poisoned the minds of the people with the microbe of war.
Prince Lichnowsky, the German Ambassador to London, called upon me often after the outbreak of the war, and insisted that he had correctly reported the sentiments of England in saying that England did not want war. After his return to Germany the Germans quite unfairly treated him as a man who had failed and seemed to blame him because England had taken the only possible course open to her and ranged herself on the side of France and Russia.
The dedication at Leipzig, in the year 1913, of the great monument to celebrate what is called the "War of Liberation," and the victory of Leipzig in the War of the Nations, 1813, had undoubtedly kindled a martial spirit in Germany. To my mind, the course which really determined the Emperor and the ruling class for war was the attitude of the whole people in the Zabern Affair and their evident and growing dislike of militarism. The fact that the Socialists, at the close of the session of the Reichstag, boldly remained in the Chamber and refused to rise or to cheer the name of the Emperor indicated a new spirit of resistance to autocracy; and autocracy saw that if it was to keep its hold upon Germany it must lead the nation into a short and successful war.
This is no new trick of a ruling and aristocratic class. From the days when the patricians of Rome forced the people into war whenever the people showed a disposition to demand their rights, autocracies have always turned to war as the best antidote against the spirit of democracy.
CHAPTER VI
AT KIEL JUST BEFORE THE WAR
Kiel, situated on the Baltic, on the eastern side of the peninsula of Jutland near the Baltic entrance of the Kiel Canal, is the principal naval centre of Germany.