In 1912 the average tax rate on the assessed valuation of all goods subject to the general property tax was .0194, or $19.40 per thousand dollars.[102] The assessed valuation of taxed real property and improvements (land, buildings, and other improvements) was nearly fifty-two billion dollars, while the true value of the same property was nearly ninety-eight and one-half billions.[103] Consequently, the actual tax rate of .0194 on the assessed valuation was exactly one per cent. on the true value of real estate. On the assumption that both land and improvements were undervalued to the same extent, the land tax was one per cent. of the full value of the land. If now we take Thomas G. Shearman's estimate, that land values form sixty per cent. of the total value of real estate, we find that the taxes derived from land constituted only forty-four per cent. of the total revenues raised by the general property tax. To concentrate the whole of the general property tax on land, by transferring thereto the taxes on improvements and on personal property, would, accordingly, cause the land tax to be somewhat more than doubled. It would be slightly above two per cent. on the full value of the land. This is the same estimate that we obtained above by a different process; that is, by comparing Professor King's estimate of land value and rent with the total revenues derived from the general property tax.
However, it is not improbable that sixty per cent. is too low an estimate of the ratio of land values to entire real estate values. In 1900, farm land and improvements, exclusive of buildings, formed 78.6 per cent. of the value of real estate, i.e., land, improvements, and buildings. In 1910, the per cent. was a little less than 82. Now it is quite unlikely that the value of non-building improvements on farms amounted to the difference between sixty per cent. and seventy-eight per cent. in 1900, or between sixty per cent. and eighty-two per cent. in 1910. Hence the value of farm land is something more than sixty per cent. of farm real estate. On the other hand, the value of factory land in 1900 formed only 41.5 per cent. of the total value of factory land and buildings, while the value of city and town lots in five rural states varied from 34 to 62 per cent. of this species of real estate.[104] In Greater New York land constitutes 61 per cent. of real estate values.[105] Owing to the lack of data, the average ratio for all kinds of real estate for the whole country is impossible of determination. If the estimate of seventy per cent. be adopted, which is probably the upper limit of the average proportion between land values and real estate values throughout the country, the portion of the general property tax now paid by land amounts to about fifty-two per cent. Consequently the imposition of the whole general property tax on land would not quite double the present rate on land. To the first of the two questions raised above the answer can be given with a fair amount of confidence that the transfer of improvement and personal property taxes to land would cause land taxes to be about twice what they are at present.
To the second question, concerning the extent to which land values would fall in consequence of the heavier taxes, the answer must be somewhat less definite. The added land taxes would be about one-half the present general property taxes, or $675,000,000. This is about one per cent. the total land values of the country. One per cent. of land values capitalised at five per cent. represents a depreciation of twenty per cent. in the value of land; capitalised at four per cent., it represents a depreciation of twenty-five per cent. For example; if land worth one hundred dollars an acre returns to its owner a net income of five dollars annually, the appropriation of one dollar by a new tax will leave a net revenue of only four dollars; capitalised at the current rate of five per cent., this represents only eighty dollars of land value, or a depreciation of twenty per cent. If the land has the same value of one hundred dollars, and still yields only four dollars revenue, a deduction of one dollar in new taxes will leave only three dollars net; capitalised at the current rate of four per cent., this represents only seventy-five dollars of land value, or a depreciation of twenty-five per cent. Using the other method of calculation, which estimated the present tax rate on the full value of land at one per cent., we get exactly the same results; namely, the new tax is one per cent., which is equivalent to a depreciation of twenty per cent. or of twenty-five per cent., according as we assume an interest rate of five per cent. or of four per cent. Suppose, however, that the assessors do not undervalue land to the extent that we have been assuming; suppose that the present rate of .0194 on assessed valuation is equivalent to, not merely one per cent., but one and one-half per cent. of the full value of land. In that hypothesis the additional tax would likewise be one and one-half per cent., which capitalised at five per cent, would represent a depreciation of thirty per cent., and at four per cent. a depreciation of thirty-seven and one-half per cent. Combining in one generalisation the various suppositions made in this paragraph, we estimate the depreciation of land values resulting from the proposed tax transfer as somewhere between twenty and forty per cent.
We have considered two hypothetical transfers of taxes to land. The first we found to be out of the question because it would appropriate the whole of the rent and destroy all private land values. The second would apparently amount to two per cent. of the value of land, and cause land values to depreciate from twenty to forty per cent. It is unnecessary to consider the probable effects of any plan that would involve heavier land taxes than the second; that is, the scheme of imposing all the general property tax on land; for it represents the extreme feasible and fair limit of the movement within, at any rate, the next fifteen or twenty years.
Even this degree of tax transference would be unjust to the landowners if it were brought about at once. No social or other considerations exist that would justify a depreciation in land values of from twenty to forty per cent. If, however, the process were extended over a period of, say, twenty years, the decline would be only one or two per cent. annually, which is considerably less than the rate at which farm lands and the land in large cities have risen in value during recent years. Under such an arrangement the great majority of owners would probably find that the depreciation caused by the heavier land taxes, had been more than offset by the upward tendency resulting from the increased demand for land.
Nevertheless, there would still be positive losses of the three kinds described a few pages back; namely, to owners who sold land below the price that they had paid for it; to owners who sold vacant land at a price insufficient to cover accumulated interest on the investment; and to owners whose aggregate tax burdens were increased. Some degree of each of these sorts of losses would be due specifically to the new land taxes. As noted above, public compensation in all such cases would be impracticable. Consequently the justification of a law that inflicts such losses must be found, if it exists, in social considerations.
The Social Benefits of the Plan
These may be summed up under three heads: making land easier to acquire; cheapening the products and rent of land; and reducing the burdens of taxation borne by the poorer and middle classes. An increase in the tax on land would reduce its value and price, or at least cause the price to be lower than it would have been in the absence of the tax. This does not mean that land would be more profitable to the purchaser, since he is enabled to buy it at a lower price only because it yields him less net revenue, or because it is less likely to increase in value. The value of land is always determined by its revenue-producing power, and by its probabilities of price-appreciation. Consequently, what the purchasers would gain by the lower price resulting from the new tax, they would lose when they came to pay the tax itself, and when they found the chances of value increases diminished. If a piece of land which brings a return of five dollars a year costs one hundred dollars before the new tax of one per cent. is imposed, and can be bought for eighty dollars afterward, the net interest on the purchase price has not changed. It is still five per cent. Hence the only advantage to the prospective purchaser of land in getting it cheaper consists in the fact that he can obtain it with a smaller outlay of capital. For persons in moderate circumstances this is a very important consideration.
In the second place, higher taxes would cause many existing owners either to improve their land, in order to have the means of meeting the added fiscal charges, or to sell it to persons who would be willing to make improvements. And the desire to erect buildings and other forms of improvements would be reinforced by the reduction or abolition of taxes on those kinds of personal property which consist of building materials. An increase in the rapidity of improvements on land would mean an increase in the rate at which land was brought into use, and therefore an unusual increase in the volume of products. This virtual increase in the supply of land, and actual increase in the supply of products, would cause a fall in three kinds of prices: the price of products, the rent of land, and the price of land. The last named reduction would be distinct from the reduction of land value caused in the first instance by the imposition of the tax.
In the third place, the reduction, and finally the abolition, of taxes on improvements and personal property would be especially beneficial to the poorer and middle classes because they now pay a disproportionate share of these charges. Lower taxes on dwellings would mean lower rents for all persons who did not own their homes, and lower taxes for all owners whose residence values were unusually large relatively to their land values. And the tendency to lower rents on dwellings would be reinforced by the lower cost of building materials resulting, as noted above, from the increased supply and the lower tax on this form of personal property. Lower taxes on that species of personal property which consists of consumers' goods, such as household furniture and wearing apparel, would lessen the present inequity of taxation because this class of goods is reached to a much greater extent in the case of the poor than in the case of the rich. It is not easy to conceal or to undervalue a relatively small number of simple and standard articles; but diamonds, costly furniture, and luxurious wardrobes can be either hidden, or certified to the assessor at a low valuation. As for those forms of personal property which are of the nature of capital and other profit producing goods, such as machinery and tools of all kinds, productive animals, money, mortgages, securities, the stocks of goods held by manufacturers and merchants, and likewise buildings which are used for productive purposes,—the taxes on all these kinds of property are for the most part shifted to the consumer. The latter ultimately pays the tax in the form of higher prices for food, clothing, shelter, and the other necessaries and comforts of life.[106] Now a tax on consumption is notoriously unfair to the poorer and middle classes because it affects a greater portion of their total expenditures, and takes a larger per cent. of their income than in the case of the rich. Hence the removal of the taxes specified in this paragraph would be at once the abolition of a fiscal injustice, and a considerable assistance to the less fortunate classes.