But it is possible by other sets of figures, obtainable from the Registrar General’s reports, to arrive at some sort of decision as to the healthiness of the middle-aged and elderly people living to-day, and to compare these results with similar ones drawn from the statistics of twenty or thirty years ago.
[Death-rate for Advanced Years on the Increase.]
In table 13 (Report of the Registrar General for 1891) the death-rates per 1,000 are given for different age periods, and these results date from 1841 to 1890, and are arranged in groups of ten years.
The table was prepared in the following way. At each period given, say from 1841–50, the number of persons living at a certain age was calculated from the census returns. The numbers dying at that age being known, these are given in the table per 1,000 persons of that age. In order to reduce the number of figures, I have shown the death-rates of two groups only, the first group of persons (males) younger, and the second group of persons older than 35 years.
| GROUP I. 0–35 years. | GROUP II. 35 and upwards. | |
|---|---|---|
| 1841–50 | 112·0 | 591·0 |
| 1851–60 | 111·2 | 581·9 |
| 1861–70 | 110·8 | 595·1 |
| 1871–80 | 101·0 | 616·7 |
| 1881–90 | 87·8 | 589·3 |
Group I. shows the very steady diminution in the death-rate of the earlier years of life, and similar results are also brought out by a corresponding table showing the death-rates among females.
Group II. showing the death-rates of individuals above 35 years of age, at first sight seems to give no very satisfactory predications of either increase or decrease of mortality, indeed the last period indicates a very decided fall in the mortality. We have, however, to remember that climatic influences are variable, and that certain groups of years are especially healthy and others inimical to well-being. That the last period is a very healthy one is indicated by the excessive fall seen in Group I., and by a corresponding fall in the number of deaths of females. These climatic variations may be assumed to influence the numbers of Group II. more than those of Group I.; indeed, on reference to the details given in the full report, I see that the fall in that period is in large measure due to the decreased mortality of those over 75, a time of life very susceptible to climatic influences.
On the whole, Group II. indicates that the death-rate above 35 is increasing, for if we add together any two consecutive periods, say 1841–50 and 1851–60, we shall find that the mortality of the last twenty years is greater than that of the first. By taking in this way longer periods of time, we can eliminate factors other than the time factor, and we can, at any rate, feel strongly suspicious that the mortality of middle and advanced life is on the increase.
The same results can, perhaps, even more conclusively be demonstrated by a study of tables showing the expectancy of life.