XXV.
WINTER. If the latter End of October and Beginning of November be for the most Part warm and rainy, then January and February are like to be frosty and cold, except after a very dry Summer.
IT is very evident, supposing this Observation to be true, as I am pretty confident it is, that the Reason of it is to be sought in that Balance of the Weather which Providence has established. There is not only a Time to sow, and a Time to reap, but there is a Time also for dry and a Time for wet Weather, and if these do not happen at proper Seasons, they will certainly happen at other Seasons; for not only the Wisdom of Philosophers hath discerned, but their Experiments and Observations have put it out of doubt, that there is a certain Rule or Proportion observed between wet Weather and dry in every Country, so that it is nearly the same in every annual Revolution, neither is wet and dry Weather only, but hot and cold, open and frost, that are thus regulated, from whence we see, that when the Scripture represents to us God's settling Things by Weight and Measure, it speaks not only elegantly, but exactly. For we do not mean by Providence any extraordinary or supernatural Interposition of almighty Power, but the constant and settled Order established by the Will of that almighty Being which we commonly call Nature.
THERE is nothing easier than for vulgar Understandings to mistake the Meaning of Words, and by a Superstition natural to weak Minds convert, what they imperfectly understand into Notions that perplex and confound them. Hence it proceeds that in common Conversation one hears People speak of Nature as of a Being, or a Kind of subordinate Deity, whereas in Reality the true Meaning of Nature is, that Order or Law which God has established in the Universe, and the Knowledge of Nature is no more than the Light we acquire by Study into the Connexion of those Laws. In this Sense Experience is a Kind of Revelation, that is to say, it is a Sort of Knowledge that comes to us from without, and is infallible in itself, we may indeed go on wrong and deceive ourselves in the Arguments we raise from it, but the Knowledge grounded upon Experiments never varies.
THIS is sufficient to shew us how much wiser a Thing it is to trust this Sort of experimental Knowledge, then to put any Faith in that Kind of idle Science which amused our Forefathers, and enabled Almanac Makers to delude and mislead them. It is true we use the Luminaries as well as they, but then we use them in a rational Manner, and do not pretend to impose this or that Sign upon other People, but barely set down our own Observations, which are to be examined and verified by the Experience of those to whom they are submitted. The Astrologer on the other Hand insists on what are not in Nature; the twelve Houses are a mere Invention, and so are all the Properties ascribed to the celestial Signs, and to the Planets; mere Dreams and Fictions devised by the Cunning to cheat and impose upon the Ignorant, and which had been long ago exploded if People had brought them to the only Test of which they are capable, I mean that of Experience; with which they never did, never will, and indeed never can agree: whereas the Rules given by our Shepherd, are such as we have shewn, suit perfectly well with Remarks of other studious Persons in all Ages.
XXVI.
If October and November be Snow and Frost, then January and February are like to be open and mild.
AS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we need not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with my former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to study Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon Experiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the Truth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by the Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what we behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with the Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order to explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows that not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a constant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of the Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living Creatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of Rats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River Nile, by the Heat of the Sun in Egypt, which might very well pass for Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the like Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in which we behold Thousands of living Creatures.
AN Italian Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a simple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a glass Vessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it putrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how careful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment was made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in putrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun can no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By the same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out a Multitude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for granted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account for them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom, and encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and foolish Notions.
TO apply this to the Subject of which we are treating. It is certainly a curious and a useful Thing to understand the Nature of the Weather, and to know how the Changes that happen in it come to pass. The Business is to find out the true Way of coming at this kind of Knowledge, and upon the Principles that I have advanced, it is very evident that the, only certain Way of coming at it is by Observation. This is a slow but a sure Method of arriving at Truth, and the Specimen here given us, of one Man's Observations, is enough to convince us that a little Diligence and Application would soon go a great Way towards forming a Body of such Observations as might enable us to understand the Weather thoroughly, and to predict its Changes and Alterations with a great Degree of Certainty. If we will not take this Pains, we must content ourselves with what hath been already discovered, or if our Conditions of Life exclude us from the Opportunities of making such Observations, it is certainly a right Thing to help ourselves by inquiring into, and reasoning upon such Observations as other People have made and to facilitate this as far as possible, I have taken the Pains to write this Commentary upon our Shepherd's Rules; which I hope will render them more useful, or at least secure them that Regard which they deserve.