But Clausewitz has not in his question, above quoted, put the case quite fairly. The question which Napoleon considered was this:—What would in all probability be the effect upon two Prussian corps, numbering at the commencement of the action not over 63,000 men, attacked vigorously for three or four hours, subjected during that time to a most destructive fire of artillery, reduced by casualties to a force not greatly exceeding 50,000 men, assailed in front by over 20,000 fresh troops in addition to their opponents of the last few hours, forced to make a precipitate retreat by having their connection with the rest of their army broken,—what would be the effect upon them at this moment of an unexpected and vigorous attack in rear of 10,000 fresh troops? Napoleon thought and said, that, in his judgment, the result would be the total rout of the two corps, the capture of all their guns and perhaps half of their men. It is probable that he was right in his opinion.
4. But how far was Napoleon warranted in expecting aid from Ney?
As to Ney’s whereabouts at the time when the 2 P.M. order should reach him, say, at 5 P.M., we have spoken before,[385] and have shown that, long before that hour, certainly as early as 4 P.M., the whole of the 2d Corps and the greater part of the 1st Corps ought to have arrived at Quatre Bras. In fact, it will be remembered that had Reille obeyed at once Ney’s order to him he would have arrived at Quatre Bras at noon; and there was nothing to prevent d’Erlon following promptly on his traces. Napoleon, it is true, as we learn from his own narrative, had heard of this vexatious delay, caused by Reille,—which he naturally but erroneously attributed to Reille’s superior, Ney,—but he still seemed to think it possible that Ney could be at Quatre Bras at noon, notwithstanding. This, to be sure, was absolutely out of Ney’s power, as we have seen; but there was no reason whatever why Ney should not have had long before 5 P.M. his whole command well in hand, at or in front of Quatre Bras. Napoleon was perfectly justified in assuming this to be the case.
But though Ney might well be at Quatre Bras with his whole force, he might yet be entirely unable to comply with the Emperor’s order to detach a force to attack the Prussians in rear.
Clausewitz[386] points out that Ney with his 40,000 men could easily encounter 50,000 to 60,000 English and Dutch. This is certainly true. It may be added that the last dispatch[387] sent to Ney informed him that an officer of lancers had just informed the Emperor that large masses of the enemy were to be seen near Quatre Bras. This information was incorrect, as a matter of fact, yet it was believed to be true at the time the despatch was written. Of course the truth may have been ascertained before the 2 P.M. order was sent to Ney; but we do not know this for a fact. There was certainly no reason why Napoleon should have felt certain that Ney would find it possible to send troops to his assistance; it all depended upon the forwardness of the concentration of the Duke of Wellington’s army; and as to this Napoleon could but guess,—he had no information at all.
5. If Napoleon, then, could not rely with any certainty on Ney’s assistance, was he justified in adopting a plan of battle, to the full success of which Ney’s coöperation was essential? Would it not have been wiser for him to have adopted the plan recommended by Rogniat, Davout and Clausewitz, and to have thrown his whole force on the exposed right wing of the Prussians?
This question cannot be properly answered without a careful examination of the tactical conditions, and this no one of Napoleon’s critics has attempted with any detail. We will leave the matter, therefore, with this single observation. Napoleon, when he had completed his examination of the Prussian position, saw that there were open to him two plans of attack, each giving excellent promise of success. He chose the one which in his judgment offered the greater chance of success, independent of Ney’s coöperation, and promised a decisive success if Ney’s coöperation could be secured. As it was, without Ney’s assistance, and in spite of an unfortunate accident which caused an injurious delay in the final attack, he gained a great victory. It hardly seems worth our while to speculate on what the results would have been if he had adopted the other plan.
6. Why did not Napoleon order d’Erlon’s Corps to remain and take part in the action? For not doing this he has been most severely criticised by Charras[388] and others. But Napoleon must have supposed that d’Erlon had come upon the field under orders from Marshal Ney expressly to remain and take part in the action. Why, then, should he send him any orders? Jomini, indeed, says[389] that Napoleon should have sent d’Erlon an order directing him on Brye. We can see now that this would have been wise; but it might well have appeared unnecessary at the time, inasmuch as the order of 2 P.M. by implication directs Ney’s troops on Brye. It must also be remembered that at this moment Napoleon had all he could attend to in organizing the decisive movement on Ligny.
If any other explanation than the above be needed, it has been furnished by Clausewitz.[390] He says that the lateness of the hour probably prevented Napoleon from directing personally the employment of the 1st Corps.
“Napoleon seems to have received information of the approach of this corps somewhere in the neighborhood of half-past five; it took till seven before the news that it was d’Erlon was brought him; it would have taken an hour before d’Erlon could have received the order, and another hour would have passed before he could have appeared in the neighborhood of Brye,” i.e., in obedience to such an order.