"These wants will exist as long as immigration continues to flow into the country, and labor employed in collecting gold shall be more profitable than its application to agriculture, the mechanic arts, and the great variety of pursuits which are fostered and sustained in other civilized communities.
"This may be shown by mentioning the prices of a few articles. Last summer and autumn, lumber was sold in San Francisco at $300 to $400 per thousand feet. At Stockton and Sacramento City, at $500 to $600. At these prices, it could be made in the territory, and many persons were engaged in the business. I perceive, by recent accounts, that the price had fallen at San Francisco to $75. At this price, it cannot be made where labor is from $10 to $15 per day; and the difficulties attending its manufacture are much greater than in the Atlantic States. Lumber can be delivered in our large lumber markets for an average of the various qualities of $16, and freighted to San Francisco for $24, making $40 per thousand feet. This price would cause the manufacture of it in California to be abandoned. We may add $20 per thousand, to meet any increase of price in the article itself, or in the freight, and the result would be the same.
"It is probable that the demand, for several years to come, will not be less than twenty millions of feet per annum, which, at $40 per thousand, will be $800,000.
"When California comes to have a population of 200,000, which she will have before the close of the present year, she will require nearly half a million barrels of flour from some quarter, and no country can supply it so good and cheap as the old States of the Union. Including freight and insurance, this may be set down as an item of about $5,000,000. The article of clothing, allowing $20 to each person, would be $4,000,000.
"There is no pretension to accuracy in these items, and they may be estimated too high; but it is quite as probable they are too low.
"We have no data on which to found a calculation of what the value of the trade between the States east of the Rocky Mountains and California will be during the current year. I will venture the opinion, however, that it will not fall short of twenty-five millions of dollars. It may go far beyond that sum. At present, I can conceive no cause which will retard or diminish immigration.
"If the movement shall continue five years, our commerce with that territory may reach one hundred millions per annum. This is doubtless a startling sum; but it must be borne in mind that we have to build cities and towns, supply machinery for mining, coal for domestic purposes, and steam navigation, and all the multifarious articles used in providing the comforts and luxuries of life, for half a million of people, who will have transferred themselves to a country which is to produce, comparatively, nothing except minerals and the precious metals, and whose pursuits will enable them to purchase, at any cost, whatever may be necessary for their purposes.
"It is difficult to imagine or calculate the effect which will be produced on all the industrial pursuits of the people of the Old States of the Union, by this withdrawal from them of half a million of producers, who, in their new homes and new pursuits, will give existence to a commerce almost equal in value to our foreign trade. Let no one, therefore, suppose he is not interested in the welfare of California. As well may he believe his interests would not be influenced by closing our ports and cutting off intercourse with all the world.
"The distance round Cape Horn is so great that bread-stuffs and many other articles of food deteriorate, and many others are so perishable in their nature that they would decay on the passage. This would be the case particularly with all kinds of vegetables and undried fruits. Until some more speedy mode of communication shall be established by which produce can be transferred, the farmers and planters of the old States will not realize the full value of this new market on the Pacific.
"Many other important interests will be kept back, especially the consumption of coal. The American steamers, now on that ocean, those on their way there, and others shortly to be sent out, will consume not far from one hundred thousand tons of coal per annum. The scarcity of wood in California will bring coal into general use as fuel, as soon as it can be obtained at reasonable prices. Suppose there may be, three years hence, forty thousand houses, which shall consume five tons each per annum. This, with the steamers, would be a consumption of three hundred thousand tons. If delivered at $20 per ton, it would compete successfully with the coal from Vancouver's Island and New Holland, and amount to $6,000,000.