Will Japan respect the pledges she has made and live up to the spirit of her promises? If she does, the Washington Conference will prove to be a great success. If, on the contrary, Japan does not intend to live up to her pledges or intends to fulfill them only in part, her position in Asia has been greatly strengthened. She is more firmly intrenched in Manchuria than ever. She holds the Maritime Province of Siberia under a promise to get out, which she has repeatedly made and repeatedly broken, as was plainly stated by Secretary Hughes before the full Committee on Far Eastern Affairs, and repeated at a plenary session of the Conference. His statement was one of the most remarkable, by reason of its directness and unvarnished truth, in the history of American diplomacy. After reviewing the correspondence between the two governments and the reiterated assurances of Japan of her intention to withdraw from Siberia, assurances which so far had not been carried out, Mr. Hughes expressed his gratification at the renewal of these assurances before the Conference in plenary session. Unless Japan is utterly devoid of moral shame, she will have to make good her word this time.
When the treaties drafted by the Conference were submitted by the President to the Senate, they encountered serious opposition, but were finally ratified. The Republican leaders, particularly Senator Lodge, were twitted with charges of inconsistency in advocating certain features of these treaties when they had violently opposed the League of Nations. The Four-Power Treaty is much more of an entangling alliance than the Covenant of the League, and the Naval Treaty deprives Congress for a period of fifteen years of its constitutional right to determine the size of the navy and to provide for the defense of Guam and the Philippines. In fact, there were very few objections raised to the League of Nations which could not with equal force be applied to the Four-Power and Naval Treaties. The Four-Power Treaty was the main object of attack, and Senators Lodge and Underwood were greatly embarrassed in attempting to explain its meaning. Its "baffling brevity" demanded explanations, but no satisfactory explanations were forthcoming. They talked in general terms about the tremendous importance of the treaty, but they dared not state the real fact that the treaty was drafted by Mr. Balfour and Baron Kato as the most convenient method of terminating the Anglo-Japanese Alliance without making it appear to the Japanese public that their government had surrendered the alliance without due compensation. According to an Associated Press Dispatch from Tokio, January 31, 1922, Baron Uchida, the Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, replying to interpolations in the House of Peers, said: "The Four-Power Treaty was not intended to abrogate the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, but rather to widen and extend it." The real quid pro quo for the termination of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance was the agreement of the United States not to construct naval bases or new fortifications in Guam and the Philippines, and the clause terminating the Anglo-Japanese Alliance might just as well have been attached to the Naval Treaty, but this would not have satisfied Japanese public opinion. Great Britain and Japan were permitted to terminate their alliance in any way that they might deem best. After the Four-Power Treaty was accepted by the American delegates, they feared that it would look too much as if the United States had merely been drawn into the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. It was decided, therefore, at the eleventh hour to give the agreement a more general character by inviting France to adhere to it. France agreed to sign, although she resented not having been consulted during the negotiation of the treaty.
The achievements of the Conference, although falling far short of the extravagant claims made by the President and the American delegates, are undoubtedly of great importance. The actual scrapping of millions of dollars' worth of ships in commission or in process of construction gives the world an object lesson such as it has never had before. One of the most significant results of the Conference was the development of a complete accord between England and the United States, made possible by the settlement of the Irish question and furthered by the tact and gracious bearing of Mr. Balfour. One of the unfortunate results was the increased isolation of France, due to the failure of her delegates to grasp the essential elements of the situation and to play any but a negative role. The success of the Conference was due largely to Secretary Hughes who, though handicapped at every point by fear of the Senate and by the unfortunate commitments of President Harding during the last campaign, may be said on the whole to have played his hand reasonably well.
Meanwhile we are still drifting, so far as a general European policy is concerned. President Harding's idea of holding aloof from "Europe's league," as he prefers to designate the League of Nations, and of having a little league of our own in the Pacific, will not work. The world's problems cannot be segregated in this way. Europe's league includes all of the principal American nations except the United States and Mexico, while our Pacific league includes the two leading European powers. As soon as the American people realize—and there are indications that they are already waking up to the reality—that the depression in domestic industry and foreign commerce is due to conditions in Europe and that prosperity will not return until we take a hand in the solution of European problems, there will be a general demand for a constructive policy and America will no longer hesitate to reassume the leadership which she renounced in the referendum of 1920, but which the rest of the world is ready to accord to her again.
INDEX
ABC alliance, 162, 165.
Aberdeen, Lord, opposes annexation of Texas by United States, 108.
Adams, Charles Francis, 114.
Adams, Henry, letter from Hay to, 90.
Adams, John Quincy, opposes joint action with England, 31; accepts invitation to send delegates to Panama Congress, 154.