In England 20 times the quantity of money is given for goods, that was given 200 years ago. in these countries ’tis thought goods have rose; but goods have kept their value, ’tis money has fallen.
Most goods have increased in quantity, equal or near as the demand for them has increased; and are at or near the value they had 200 years ago. land is more valuable, by improvement producing to a greater value, and the demand increasing, the quantity being the same. silver and money are of lesser value, being more increased in quantity, than in demand.
Goods will continue equal in quantity as they are now to the demand, or won’t differ much: for the increase of most goods depends on the demand. if the quantity of oats be greater than the demand for consumption and magazines, what is over is a drug, so that product will be lessened, and the land imployed to some other use: if by a scarcity the quantity be lesser than the demand, that demand will be supplyed from magazines of former years; or if the magazines are not sufficient to answer the demand, that scarcity cannot well be supposed to last above a year or two.
Land will continue to rise in value, being yet capable of improvement; and as the demand increases, for the quantity will be the same.
Silver will continue to fall in value, as it increases in quantity, the demand not increasing in proportion; for the increase does not depend on the demand. most people won’t allow themselves to think that silver is cheaper or less valuable, tho’ it appears plainly, by comparing what quantity of goods such a weight of fine silver bought 200 years ago, and what quantity of the same goods it will buy now. if a piece of wine in France is equal in value to 20 bolls of oats there, that quantity of oats can never be worth more or less wine; so long as the quality, quantity and demand of both continues the same: but any disproportioned change in their quality, quantity or demand, will make the same quantity of the one, be equal to a greater quantity of the other. so if a piece of wine in France, is equal to or worth 40 crowns there; it will always continue so, unless some disproportioned change happen in the quantity, quality, or demand of the wine, or of the money.
The reason is plain, why silver has encreased more in quantity than in demand: the Spaniards bring as great quantities into Europe as they can get wrought out of the mines, for it is still valued tho’ not so high. and tho’ none of it come into Britain, yet it will be of less value in Britain, as it is in greater quantity in Europe.
It may be objected that the demand for silver is now greater than the quantity. it is answered: tho’ the demand is greater than the quantity; yet it has not increased in proportion with the quantity. 200 years ago money or silver was at 10 per cent, now from 6 to 3. if the demand had increased as much as the quantity, money would give 10 p. cent as then, and be equal to the same quantity of victual, or other goods that have kept their value. if A. B. having a 1000 lib. to lend, should offer it at 10 per. cent. interest, and desired land of 240 chalder of victual rent for his security, as was used to be given 200 years ago: tho’ no law regulate the interest of money, A. B. would find no borrowers on these conditions; because silver having increased more in quantity than in demand, and the denomination being altered, money is of less value, and is to be had on easier terms. if the demand had encreased in the same proportion with the quantity, and the money had not been raised, the same interest would be given now as then, and the same quantity of victual to pay the interest; for money keeping its value, 8 sh. and 4 pence would be equal to a chalder of victual, as it was then.
If 2000 lib. was laid out on plate 200 years ago, it is thought the loss on the plate was only the fashion, and the interest; but if the 2000 lib. had been laid out on land, the rent of that land would be more than the value of such plate.
Tho’ money or silver is so much fallen from the value it had, yet it’s given as a value for one half, or two thirds more than its value as silver, abstract from its use as money.
Suppose silver to be no more used as money in Europe, its quantity would be the same, and the demand for it much lesser; which might lower it 2 thirds or more; for besides that the demand would be less, its uses as plate, &c. are not near so necessary, as that of money.