[48] The ordinary revenue and expenditure were estimated to balance at 48.48 milliard paper marks. The extraordinary expenditure was estimated at 59.68 milliards, making a total expenditure of 108.16 milliards. Included in this, however, were 14.6 milliards for various Reparation items. These are in respect of various pre–May 1, 1921, items and do not allow for payments under the London Settlement; but to avoid confusion I have deducted these from the estimate of expenditure as stated above. The extraordinary revenue was estimated at 10.5 milliards, making a total revenue of 58.98 milliards.
[49] I have allowed nothing so far for the costs of the Armies of Occupation, which, under the letter of the Treaty, Germany is under obligation to pay in addition to the sums due for Reparation proper. As these charges rank in priority ahead of Reparation, and as the London Agreement does not deal with them, I think Germany is liable to be called on to pay these as they accrue in addition to the annuities fixed in the London Settlement. But I am doubtful whether the Allies intend in fact to demand this. Hitherto the expense of the Armies has been so great as to absorb virtually the whole of the receipts (see Excursus V. below), having amounted by the middle of 1921 to about $1,000,000,000. In any case, it is now time that the agreement, signed at Paris in 1919 by Clemenceau, Lloyd George, and Wilson, should be brought into force, to the effect that the sum payable annually by Germany to cover the cost of occupation shall be limited to 240 million gold marks as soon as the Allies “are convinced that the conditions of disarmament by Germany are being satisfactorily fulfilled.” If we assume that this reduced figure is brought into force, as it ought to be, the total burden on Germany for Separation and Occupation comes, on the assumption of the lower figure for exports, to 3.8 milliard gold marks, that is, to 76 milliard paper marks.
[50] “This estimate is based on an average wage of about 800 paper marks monthly for male, and about 400 paper marks monthly for female, employees.” Converting these figures at the rate of 12 paper marks equal to 1 gold mark, he arrived at an aggregate national income between 30 and 34 milliard gold marks. It is not easy to see how these wage estimates, even assuming their correctness, can lead to so high an aggregate figure.
[51] There are twice as many male commercial employees as there are female.
[52] For a full examination of the purchasing power of the paper mark inside Germany, see an article by M. Elsas in the Economic Journal, September 1921.
[53] A summary of this Agreement and other papers relating to it are given in the Appendix No. 8.
[54] See Appendix No. 8.
[55] Incidentally the Wiesbaden Agreement sets up a fairer procedure for fixing the prices of supplies in kind than that contemplated in the Treaty. According to the Treaty the prices are fixed at the sole discretion of the Reparation Commission. In the Wiesbaden Agreement this duty is assigned to an Arbitral Commission consisting of a German representative, a French representative, and an impartial third who are to fix the prices, broadly speaking, on the basis of price existing in France in each quarterly period subject to this price being not more than 5 per cent below the German price.
[56] See Appendix No. 8.
[57] I return to the theoretical aspects of this question in Chapter VI.