There are omitted from this table Poland and Czecho–Slovakia, of which the claims are probably inadmissible, the United States, which submitted no claim, and certain minor claimants shown in Appendix No. 3.
In round figures, therefore, we may put the claims as lodged before the Reparations Commission at about 225 milliard gold marks, of which 95 milliards was in respect of pensions and allowances, and 130 milliards for claims under other heads.
The Reparation Commission in announcing its decision did not particularize as between different claimants or as between different heads of claim, and merely stated a lump sum figure. Their figure was 132 milliards; that is to say, about 58 per cent of the sums claimed. This decision was in no way concerned with Germanyʼs capacity to pay, and was simply an assessment, intended to be judicial, as to the sum justly due under the heads of claim established by the Treaty of Versailles.
The decision was unanimous, but only in face of sharp differences of opinion. It is not suitable or in accordance with decency to set up a body of interested representatives to give a judicial decision in their own case. This arrangement was an offspring of the assumption which runs through the Treaty that the Allies are incapable of doing wrong, or even of partiality.
Nothing has been published in England about the discussions which led up to this conclusion. But M. Poincaré, at one time President of the Reparation Commission and presumably well–informed about its affairs, has lifted a corner of the veil in an article published in the Revue des Deux Mondes for May 15, 1921. He there divulges the fact that the final result was a compromise between the French and the British representatives, the latter of whom endeavored to fix the figure at 104 milliards, and defended this adjudication with skilful and even passionate advocacy.[77]
When the decision of the Reparation Commission was first announced, and was found to abate so largely the claims lodged with it, I hailed it, led away a little perhaps by its very close agreement with my own predictions, as a great triumph for justice in international affairs. So, in a measure, I still think it. The Reparation Commission went a considerable way in disavowing the veracity of the claims of the Allied Governments. Indeed, their reduction of the claims for items other than pensions and allowances must have been very great since the claims for pensions, being capable of more or less exact calculation,[78] can hardly have been subject to an initial error of anything approaching 42 per cent. If, for example, they reduced the claim for pensions and allowances from 95 to 80 milliards, they must have reduced the other claims from 130 milliards to 52 milliards, that is to say, by 60 per cent. Yet even so, on the data now available, I do not believe that their adjudication could be maintained before an impartial tribunal. The figure of 104 milliards, attributed by M. Poincaré to Sir John Bradbury, is probably the nearest we shall get to a strictly impartial assessment.
To complete our summary of the facts two particulars must be added. (1) The total, as assessed by the Reparation Commission, comprehends the total claim against Germany and her Allies. It includes, that is to say, the damage done by the armies of Austria–Hungary, Turkey, and Bulgaria, as well as by those of Germany. Payments, if any, made by Germanyʼs Allies must, presumably, be deducted from the sum due. But Annex I. of the Reparation Chapter of the Treaty of Versailles is so drafted as to render Germany liable for the whole amount. (2) This total is exclusive of the sum due under the Treaty for the reimbursement of sums lent to Belgium by her Allies during the war. At the date of the London Agreement (May 1921) Germanyʼs liability under this head was provisionally estimated at 3 milliard gold marks. But it had not then been decided at what rate these loans, which were made in terms of dollars, sterling, and francs, should be converted into gold marks. The question was referred for arbitration to Mr. Boyden, the United States Delegate on the Reparation Commission, and at the end of September 1921 he announced his decision to the effect that the rate of conversion should be based on the rate of exchange prevailing at the date of the Armistice. Including interest at 5 per cent, as provided by the Treaty, I estimate that this liability amounts at the end of 1921 to about 6 milliard gold marks, of which slightly more than a third is due to Great Britain and slightly less than a third each to France and the United States respectively.
I take, therefore, as my final conclusion that the best available estimate of the sum due from Germany, under the strict letter of the Treaty of Versailles, is 110 milliard gold marks, which may be divided between the main categories of claim in the proportions—74 milliards for pensions and allowances, 30 milliards for direct damage to the property and persons of civilians, and 6 milliards for war debt incurred by Belgium.