The simplicity of my plan may be emphasized by summarizing it. (1) Great Britain, and if possible America too, to cancel all the debts owing them from the Governments of Europe and to waive their claims to any share of German Reparation; (2) Germany to pay 1260 million gold marks (£63,000,000 gold) per annum for 30 years, and to hold available a lump sum of 1000 million gold marks for assistance to Poland and Austria; (3) this annual payment to be assigned in the shares 1080 million gold marks to France and 180 million to Belgium.
This would be a just, sensible, and permanent settlement. If France were to refuse it, she would indeed be sacrificing the substance to the shadow. In spite of superficial appearances to the contrary, it is also in the self–interest of Great Britain. Perhaps British public opinion, profoundly altered though it now is, may not yet be reconciled to obtaining nothing. But this is a case where a wise nation will do best by acting in a large way. I have not neglected to consider with care the various possible devices by which Great Britain might get, or appear to get, something for herself from the settlement. She might take, for instance, in satisfaction of her claims some of the C Bonds under the London Settlement, which, having a third priority after provision for the A and B Bonds, can be given a nominal value but are really worth nothing. She might, in lieu of receiving a share of the proceeds of the German customs, stipulate that her goods should be admitted into Germany free of duty. She might seek a partial control over German industries, or obtain the services of German organization for the future exploitation of Russia. Plans of this sort attract an ingenious mind and are not to be discarded too hastily. Yet I prefer the simple plan, and I believe that all these devices are contrary to true wisdom.
There is a disposition in some quarters to insist that any concessions to France by Great Britain and the United States, affecting Reparation and Inter–Ally Debt, should be conditional on Franceʼs acceptance of a more pacific policy towards the rest of the world than that to which she herself appears to be inclined. I hope that France will abandon her opposition to proposals for reduced military and naval establishments. What a handicap her youth will suffer if she maintains conscription whilst her neighbors, voluntarily or involuntarily, have abandoned it! Does she realize the impossibility of friendship between Great Britain and any neighboring Power which embarks on a large program of submarines? I hope, too, that France will forget her dangerous ambitions in Central Europe and will limit strictly those in the Near East; for both are based on rubbishy foundations and will bring her no good. That she has anything to fear from Germany in the future which we can foresee, except what she may herself provoke, is a delusion. When Germany has recovered her strength and pride, as in due time she will, many years must pass before she again casts her eyes Westward. Germanyʼs future now lies to the East, and in that direction her hopes and ambitions, when they revive, will certainly turn.
France has an opportunity now of consolidating her national position into one of the stablest, safest, richest on the face of the earth; self–contained; well– but not over–populated; the heir of a peculiar and splendid civilization. Neither whining about devastated districts, which are easily repaired, nor boasting of military hegemonies, which can quickly ruin her, let her lift up her head as the leader and mistress of Europe in the peaceful practices of the mind.
Nevertheless, these objects are not to be gained by bargaining and cannot be imposed from without. Therefore they must not be dragged into the Reparation Settlement. This Settlement must be offered France on one condition only,—that she accepts it. But if, like Shylock, she claims her pound of flesh, then let the Law prevail. Let her have her bond, and let us have our bonds too. Let her get what she can from Germany and pay what she owes to the United States and England.
The chief question for dispute is, perhaps, whether an annual payment by Germany of £63,000,000 (gold) is enough. I admit that the payment of a somewhat larger sum may prove to be within her capacity. But I recommend this figure because on the one hand it is sufficient to restore the destruction done in France, yet on the other is not so crushing that, to make Germany pay it, we need be in a position to invade her every spring and autumn. We must fix the payment at an amount which Germany herself will recognize as not unjust, and which is sufficiently within her maximum capacity to leave her some incentive to work and pay it off.
Suppose that we knew the theoretical maximum of Germanyʼs capacity to produce and sell abroad a surplus of goods, or could hit on some sliding scale which would automatically absorb year by year whatever surplus there was; should we be wise to demand it? The project of extracting at the point of the bayonet—for that is what it would mean—a payment so heavy that it would never be paid voluntarily, and to go on doing this until all the makers of the Peace Treaty of Versailles have been long dead and buried in their local Valhallas, is neither good nor sensible.
My own proposals, moderate though they may seem in comparison with others, throw on Germany a very great burden. They procure for France an enormous benefit. Frenchmen, having fed to satiety on imaginary figures, are nearly ready, I think, to find a surprising flavor and piquancy in real ones. Let them consider what a tremendous financial strength my scheme would give them. Freed from external debt, they would receive in real values each year for thirty years a payment equivalent in gold to nearly half the gold reserve now held by the Bank of France; and at the end of the set period Germany would have paid back ten times what she took after 1870.
Is it for Englishmen to complain? Are they really losers? One cannot cast up a balance–sheet between incommensurables. But peace and amity might be won for Europe. And England is only asked (as I fancy she knows pretty well, by now, in her bones) to give up something which she will never get anyhow. The alternative is that we and the United States will be jockeyed out of our claims amidst a general international disgust.