Figures and facts such as these in the history of a young nation bespeak the presence not merely of great natural opportunities, but of a people marvelously apt and forceful. From such results should be anticipated the highest attainable prosperity and happiness. Our population is alert, aspiring, and buoyant, not given to needless repining or aimless endeavor, but, with fixity of purpose, presses ever eagerly on, utilizing every conception of the brain to supplement and multiply the possibilities of the hand, and at every turn subordinating the subtle forces of nature to the best and wisest purposes of man. No equal number of persons on the globe better deserve success, or are better adapted for its enjoyment.
But instead of finding, as we should find, happiness and contentment broadcast throughout our great domain, there are heard from all directions, even in this Republic, resounding cries of distress and dissatisfaction. Every trade and occupation exhibits symptoms of uneasiness and distrust. The farmer, the artisan, the merchant,—all share in the general complaint that times are hard, that business is "dull." The farmer is in debt, and is not realizing, on the products of his labor, the wherewithal to meet either his deferred or his current obligations; the artisan, when at work, finds himself compelled to share his earnings with some relative or friend who is out of employment; the merchant who buys his goods on time finds little profit in sales, and difficulty in making his payments.
WHAT IS THE DIFFICULTY?
What can it be, Mr. President, that has thus brought to naught all the careful estimates and painstaking computations, not of thousands, nor of hundreds of thousands, but of millions, of keen, shrewd, and far-seeing men? Our people take an intelligent interest in their business; they look ahead; they endeavor, as far as possible, to estimate correctly their assets and liabilities, so that on the day of reckoning they may be found ready. Why this universal failure of all classes to compute correctly in advance their situation on the coming pay-day? What potent and sinister drug has been secretly introduced into the veins of commerce that has caused the blood to flow so sluggishly—that has narcotized the commercial and industrial world?
All have been looking for the cause, and many think they have discovered it. With some it is "over-production," with others either a "high tariff" or a "tariff not sufficiently high." Some think it due to trusts and combinations, others to improved methods of production, or because the crops are overabundant or not abundant enough. Some ascribe the difficulty to speculation; others, to "strikes." All sorts of insufficient and contradictory causes are assigned for the same general and universal complaint. However inadequate in themselves, they serve to emphasize the universal recognition of a difficulty whose cause without close inquiry is likely to elude detection. But the evil is of such magnitude, it is so widespread and pervasive, that, without a knowledge of its cause, all effort at mitigation of its effects can but add to the confusion and intensify the difficulty.
It behooves us, therefore, as we value the prosperity and happiness of our people, to set ourselves diligently to the inquiry: What is the cause of the unrest and discontent now universally prevailing?
ONE SYMPTOM COMMON TO ALL INDUSTRIES.
In surveying the question broadly, to discover whether there is anything that affects the situation in common from the standpoint of varying occupations, we find one, and only one, uniform and unfailing characteristic; the prices of all commodities and of all property, except in money centers, have fallen, and continue falling. Such a phenomenon as a constant and progressive fall in the general range of prices has always exercised so baleful an influence on the prosperity of mankind that it never fails to arrest attention.
History gives evidence of no more prolific source of human misery than a persistent and long continued fall in the general range of prices. But, although exercising so pernicious an influence, it is not itself a cause, but an effect.
When a fall of prices is found operating, not on one article or class of articles alone, but on the products of all industries; when found to be not confined to any one climate, country, or race of people, but to diffuse itself over the civilized world; when it is found not to be a characteristic of any one year, but to go on progressively for a series of years, it becomes manifest that it does not and can not arise from local, temporary or subordinate causes, but must have its genesis and development in some principle of universal application.