Mr. Osmund Phillips, New York, N. Y.
My dear Mr. Phillips:—
I have before me your circular letter of the 8th instant and your kind favor of recent date.
In reply to your question—What is the outlook for business in the early months of 1917?
The outlook is good. Our mills and plants for several months could not nil the domestic orders even if the war orders were entirely withdrawn. I am told that all the recent orders placed are firm and are to be filled regardless of the ending of the war.
Will the end of the European war mark the end of the present period of prosperity?
This is a broad and doubtful question. I do not think the end of the war will end the present period of prosperity. There will be a temporary halt. I might add in this connection, that in my judgment the last overture from the Kaiser may result in the cessation of the war, but I believe this period to be quite a distance off. There are three parties in Germany. First, the Kaiser and the Prussian Military circle, who have been in charge and have carried their own way up to very nearly the present time. Second, there are the people of Germany who are the common people, the good substantial people, the majority of whom have been kept in ignorance of the real beginning of the war and the cause for its continuing. These people are commencing to get information and as time goes on will be in full possession of the facts. Third, the business men of Germany. There are no better nor more substantial business men any place in the world than those in Germany; these men are really responsible for the building up of Germany and it is my opinion that these people are now responsible for the pressure that is undoubtedly being brought on the Kaiser and the military party for the settlement of the war. I believe that this pressure will continue until a settlement is made. These business men recognize that the longer the settlement is put off the harder it will be for Germany.
In your opinion, what proportion of the country's total trade, both foreign and domestic, during the past year, was due to the war?
I think about one-half of the trade of the country is due greatly, directly and indirectly to the war.
Do you think that labor demands have exceeded labor's fair share of the increase in profits?