On June 8th the Government was beaten on the second reading of the Budget. The ostensible question, which concerned nobody, was that of a tax on wine and beer. The whole of the thirty-nine Irish members voted for the Opposition, and the Government was beaten by twelve. Thereupon Gladstone resigned and Lord Salisbury formed his first Ministry. Parnell held the key of the position. He had put the Tories into power; at his will he could put them out again.
Lord Carnarvon became Lord Lieutenant, Sir Michael Hicks-Beach Chief Secretary, and the intention was expressed to govern Ireland by constitutional methods. Coercion for the time being was abandoned, Lord Carnarvon had thought much on Irish questions, and his rule was in marked contrast to that of his immediate predecessors.
On July 14th Lord Richard Grosvenor suddenly remembered Parnell's draft Constitution for Ireland which I had submitted to Gladstone. Did it still hold good? To this letter I replied, and on July 23rd Lord Richard wrote again asking for a plain answer. But this at the moment it was impossible to give, for the attitude the Tories would take up with regard to Home Rule was not yet certain. Lord Carnarvon, the Lord Lieutenant, was believed to be very favourably disposed to the Irish demands, and Lord Randolph Churchill seemed willing to go far. On July 28th Lord Richard wrote again, imploring us to show our hand. Evidently the Irish vote was worth securing.
It is interesting to note that on July 17th Mr. Chamberlain, speaking at Holloway, urged that the pacification of Ireland depended on the concession to her of the right to govern herself in the matter of purely local business.
At the end of July Parnell met Lord Carnarvon in London. The Lord Lieutenant had already been in communication with Sir Charles Gavan Duffy and Mr. Justin McCarthy upon the subject of Home Rule, and there can be little doubt he was in earnest in his agreement with the principle. How far he was used by his Party as a cat's-paw to play for the Irish vote is another question. At least Lord Salisbury knew of the proceedings of his colleague and was perhaps not averse from using Lord Carnarvon's convictions to win Parnell's support at the forthcoming elections without giving a definite Party pledge. The conversation between Lord Carnarvon and Parnell led the latter to believe that the Tories were prepared to support a measure of local government for Ireland. But how far were the Liberals prepared to go?
On August 4th Mr. Gladstone wrote to me further with reference to the proposed constitution for Ireland. Did this represent Parnell's views now? He was urgent in asking for an answer. In one of my notes I had spoken of the suggestion that a proposition of his son, Mr. Herbert (now Lord) Gladstone, should be substituted for it. Mr. Gladstone now assured me on the best authority that no such proposition had been made. I gathered, however, that his son had made some suggestions.
To this a long and comprehensive reply was sent—apparently too long and comprehensive. No doubt he wanted a definite and limited scheme to be set before him. I had referred in my letter to certain changes which had occurred since the draft was sent. I knew that Gladstone knew what those changes were, for the frantic appeals for a definite statement were precisely the counter-bidding against the heightened biddings of Lord Randolph Churchill and the Conservative Party in which Gladstone declared he would not engage. He was obviously disinclined to make an offer until Parnell had pinned himself down to a final demand. If only he could know what the Home Rule Party wanted!
The following day Mr. Gladstone set out on a yachting expedition (to Norway), and a few days later, on August 11th, Parliament was prorogued.
Parnell opened his campaign in Dublin on August 11th, when he announced that he and his Party would stand for an Irish Parliament and nothing else. There was no talk now of a National Council. Lord Hartington replied declaring Parnell's proposals to be fatal and mischievous, and on September 9th Lord Richard wrote, on behalf of Mr. Gladstone, who was back in England, pleading for details.
On October 7th Lord Salisbury, speaking at Newport (Mon.), made a diplomatic statement about Ireland which suggested much and promised nothing.