Without noting the variations which have occurred from one century to another, in the production and in the importation of gold and silver, in order to recapitulate the quantities of the precious metals which America has poured into the European markets in 318 years, from the discovery of Hispaniola to the revolution in Mexico, M. de Humboldt considers the production of gold to have been [7]2,381,600 kilogrammes, and that of silver [8]110,362,222 kilogrammes: making a total value of about [9]32 “milliards” of francs: the weight of gold imported represents about ¹⁄₄₇th of that of silver. It does not appear probable, that the produce of gold in other parts during these three centuries has materially altered these proportions. Admitting that when first the Mexican revolution retarded the working of their silver mines, the amount of coined money throughout Europe represented a value of [10]8 “milliards” of francs, of which [11]6 “milliards” were in silver, and [12]2 “milliards” in gold, the relative quantity in weight would still have been as 47 to 1; and yet the relative monied value, thirty years since, varied in Europe between 1 to 14½, and 1 to 15¾. Thus, in the value of the precious metals, the difference was three times less than in their weight.
Nothing is more difficult in matters relating to money than to present statistics which may be considered as an approximation to truth. It would appear that as gold and silver are used as the denominators of value, generally, throughout the world, all the phenomena connected with their production and circulation ought to be noted with the greatest precision: they ought to be the points to which the attention of statisticians should be “par excellence” directed. What can be more important, in an economical point of view, than to establish a regular scale, indicating the rapidity of every movement connected with the subject, and acting as a gauge of its extent?
Divers causes appear, however, hitherto to have prevented such a desideratum. In the first place, gold and silver producing countries have generally been in a rude state of civilization; and as unable to apply rules for the public weal, as to employ machinery to aid their industry. Thus, even in the registry in Mexico under the Spanish rule, of all the money coined at their mint, and for ascertaining the amount produced in the mines by the proportion of the tax due to government, which ought to be levied thereon by the hundred-weight,—it is absolutely necessary to take into account all that quantity which escapes the vigilance of the tax-collector, and which is either sent into the interior, or exported clandestinely.
What is the sum of the precious metals really produced at any given time? What is the proportion of such production which, when exported, acts as a regulator of the prices in Europe? How are the channels formed which sometimes direct the stream of commerce towards the east, and sometimes towards the west, in the distribution of the metallic wealth of the world? All such problems, as regards the past, must probably remain unsolved. The enquiry becomes more easy when referring to our own times; but even then large allowances for incorrectness of data must necessarily be made.
At the beginning of this century, according to M. de Humboldt, gold and silver were imported annually into Europe in the relative proportions of about 1 to 55; that is, [13]15,800 kilogrammes of gold to [14]869,960 kilogrammes of silver. M. Michel Chevalier, stating, not the import but the production, calculates it at [15]23,700 kilogrammes of gold against [16]900,000 kilogrammes of silver, or in the proportion of 1 to 38; but the gold of Africa and Asia, comprised in this statement, never really found its way into European markets except in the smallest quantities, and in such amounts as could have no appreciable influence on the commercial prices of the metals. From 1810 to 1830, according to Mr. Jacob, the produce of America diminished by one half. As the reduction refers principally to silver, that is to say, to those mines which required both capital and labor, it is fair to assume that, at least during the first part of this period, the relative proportion of gold to silver would have increased; but we have no means of verifying figures which appear to justify what would otherwise rest solely on the analogy of the case.
In 1847, when the general working of the auriferous region of the Oural Mountains was at its meridian, M. Chevalier considers the annual production of gold throughout the world to have been [17]63,250 kilogrammes, and that of silver [18]875,000 kilogrammes. This would be [19]25,000 kilogrammes less of silver, and [20]30,000 kilogrammes more of gold, than at the beginning of the century. At these figures gold stands in reference to silver as 1 to 14. The return from these gold regions appears to have been greatly over-estimated. I find in a table, published in the “Times” of May, 1852, statements which appear to be founded on correct data, and which bring the production of gold up to 42,800 kilogrammes—that is, to [21]147,400,000 francs.
This result, then, is remarkable. The 17th century produced 1 lb. of gold to 60 lb. of silver. In the 18th century the production was as 1 lb. to 30 lbs. At the beginning of the 19th century silver was again abundant, and appeared in quantity as 1 to 50. Towards the year 1847 the production of gold again increased, and the relative proportions were as 1 to 20. The development of the Siberian mines, which has so materially changed the relative production of the two metals, has produced no sensible alteration in price. Will it be the same with the wonderful discoveries in California and Australia? To solve this question, it will be desirable to examine accurately the actual state of the production of gold and silver throughout the world.
III.
Before entering into this inquiry, it may be worth while to examine a circumstance of late occurrence, relating to monetary statistics, which has given rise to some discussion, but which has not yet been explained; I allude to the fall in the price of gold, and the corresponding rise in that of silver, throughout Europe, towards the end of 1850 and the beginning of 1851.