The Conquest of a Continent; or, The Expansion of Races in America

by Madison Grant

While a committee of experts went to work on the necessary research for this purpose, an amusing competition began among the alien groups and hyphenates, to exaggerate as much as possible their claims so that their relatives and compatriots might benefit by an increase in their nation's quota. The Irish were perhaps the most industrious in this occupation, for they could take advantage of the confusion, due to the fact, pointed out in these pages time and again, that the territory now composing the Irish Free State had long taken credit for every one who has passed through Ireland. Actually the "Irish" immigration in Colonial times was, as already shown, not Irish at all, but for the most part Scotch, though taking shipping from Ulster; and the Free State Catholics had few representatives in America at the time of the Revolution. Such facts were conveniently ignored by the Irish patriots, who wrote books to demonstrate that the "Irish" not only fought and won the Revolution, but that they made up the predominant element at the present time. "It has been estimated by good authorities," affirmed one such enthusiast, "that at least 25,000,000 of our present population have more or less Irish blood coursing through their veins. We" (i.e., the population of the United States), he went on, warming up to his job, "are no more Anglo-Saxon than we are Hindu!"

If the Irish Catholics were inclined to claim something like one-fourth of the total population, the Germans were prepared to claim anything up to one-third. The quota based on the 1890 census had, in fact, been extraordinarily favorable for the Germans, since they were the group that had been coming into the country in greatest number just before that date, hence they had the largest number of actual foreign-born here present in that year. Their allotment on that basis was almost one-third of the quota for the entire world. The obvious unfairness of basing future immigration on such conditions, and of ignoring almost entirely the English and Scotch stock which was the overwhelming element in the building of America, but which together received only 20 per cent of the quota, was generally recognized.

Scarcely had this injustice been removed and the National Origins measure gone into effect, however, when business depression began to throw men out of work, and it was universally felt that no new seekers for jobs should be brought into the country to displace the workers already here. Administrative restrictions, therefore, cut down the incoming flow of aliens to almost nothing. At the same time, many recent arrivals went back home, thinking they could weather the storm better among their own people.

A direct benefit from the depression, then, was that it practically stopped foreign immigration. When the time comes for consideration of the renewal of present administrative restrictions, the National Origins Act will be on the statute books as a protection. Meanwhile Americans can consider what further measures they need to take to extend the quota provision to the western hemisphere.

The actual contribution of the alien groups to the population of the United States is based not merely on their net immigration, but also on their fecundity after they settle here. Many familiar studies show that, in general, the immigrant women are more fecund than the old stock. They marry earlier, show a lower percentage of sterility, and have larger families.

The fact that women are in a minority among most of the recent immigrant groups has, however, tended to cut down their contribution. Of the whole foreign-born group, men and women have in late decades been in the ratio of about five to three. This means that the group, as a group, will make a smaller contribution than it would, had each man brought a wife with him. On the other hand, the surplus males usually marry women of other groups, their descendants being thus assimilated into the population more quickly, whether for good or for ill.

Again, the increase of the foreign-born groups is cut down by the fact that for the most part they have a higher rate of infant mortality. Variations among the races are striking. Thus while the native white has an infant mortality rate of 94 per 1000 births, that of the American Negro is 154, that of the Poles about the same, that of the French Canadians 171, that of the Portuguese 200, as shown in some extensive studies made by the Federal Children's Bureau.

In the second generation, the fecundity of the alien groups begins to decline. It is generally said that the immigrant's daughter bears one less child than did her mother. Hence if immigrants are let in slowly, they are not likely to swamp the native stock; and as to those already here, although some of them, particularly the Italians, have remarkably high birthrates, they will probably lose this advantage within the next couple of generations.

The question is often raised, whether the population of the United States would not be just as large today, if immigration had been permanently excluded in 1790. In other words, if no alien had arrived since the founding of the United States, would the descendants of the Colonial population have produced as many citizens as there are now here? This hypothesis, often known as Walker's Law, assumes that the fecundity of a group is cut down by the competition of immigrants, and that the latter do no more than fill the places which would otherwise have been filled by natural increase.

No one would claim that such a generalization is exact, but as a general tendency it seems to be near the truth. The United States would have grown large and strong, had immigration been shut off a century ago. It will continue to grow large and strong, with immigration shut off at the present time. That does not mean that the rate of growth which has been maintained during the last century will continue for another century. The Nordic civilization is at present near the end of a cycle of growth, and its rate of multiplication is slowing in every civilized country. In most of the Nordic nations, the population does not now replace itself. When the women now of child-bearing age pass from the scene, they will not leave enough daughters to take their places.