Why cannot, therefore, Russia have an idea of breaking the Berlin Treaty with equal freedom as England did with regard to the Treaties of 1856 and 1871 by concluding the Anglo-Turkish Convention single-handed? It seems to me that Russia has a great opportunity of advancing to Erzeroum, and from there proceeding to Alexandretta; and from there to Constantinople. At any rate she has ample opportunities of reaching the Persian Gulf by piercing the northern frontiers and western part of Persia, and thus completing the far-seeing policies of Peter the Great, Nicholas, and Alexander.
How can England withstand this? When Cyprus was placed under English administration both France and Italy were opposed to this, France especially so, because she had a special interest with regard to Syria. However, she concluded a secret agreement with England, that the latter would consent to a French Protectorate over Tunis, which was done in 1881, a protectorate which is now extending to Tripoli. Many regard this action of France as an indirect third offer of Egypt to England, the first having been made by Nicholas I., and the second by Louis Philippe.
Whatever the French occupation of Tunis might be, England occupied Egypt in 1885, thus fulfilling Lord Palmerston’s prophecy of a quarter of a century before, when he said that “if a practicable waterway were created between the Gulf of Pelusium and the Red Sea England would be compelled sooner or later to annex Egypt, and that he opposed M. de Lessep’s scheme because he considered it undesirable that England should annex territory in that part of the world.”[[90]]
The Suez Canal was opened in 1869, and Lord Palmerston’s prophecy was fulfilled. In 1875 the English Government purchased the Khedive’s shares (£4,000,000) in the Suez Canal, and this was followed by the bombardment of Alexandria by the British fleet in 1885. The chief aim of the English occupation of Egypt was “to possess the inns on the north road.”[[91]]
It will be impossible to avoid the conflict of English and French interests as long as there is only one route through the Suez Canal to India, and an Anglo-French alliance on the subject seems to be far distant, particularly as England has three-fourths of the traffic through the canal.
It is also a matter of great importance that England should keep Egypt orderly and peaceful. Lord Salisbury, in an excellent speech on Lord Mayor’s Day, 1889, said:
“We (English) have undertaken to sustain Egypt until she is competent to sustain herself against every enemy, foreign or domestic. We cannot see that that time has yet arrived. It may arrive quicker or later. Other Powers may help us by concurring in measures which will improve the position and increase the prosperity of Egypt, or they may defer that day by taking an opposite course. But whether the day comes sooner or later, our policy remains unaltered, and we will pursue our task to the end.”
We can easily get at the pith of Lord Salisbury’s speech. If France again became a co-partner of England in establishing peace and order in Egypt, then England would be quite willing to restore the dual control with regard to Egypt, and Lord Salisbury in 1878 had declared that England did not desire to annex Egypt.
The dual control of France and England with regard to Egypt might possibly settle affairs there temporarily, or neutralize that country on the same lines as Belgium; but still this is not a sufficient guarantee against an Anglo-French dispute on the Egyptian question.
The French Government of the present day is not noted for stability, always changing, never agreeing, and ready for foreign quarrels, and although now they are supporting the English Government in Egypt, it is not safe to depend upon them, for the feeling of rivalry is sure to arise, and great caution has to be exercised in order to prevent complications arising. No matter what happens, England must have free communication with India, and as long as there is only one road, ruptures will be inevitable, and there can be no firm alliance as in the case of the Crimean War.