The increase of a country is the difference between its birth rate and its death rate. The population of a country depends, not upon its birth rate, but upon its birth rate, minus its death rate. If the two are identical, the population is stationary. This happened in France in the 1891–5 period. The number of births per thousand inhabitants was exactly the number of deaths per thousand inhabitants. The rest of the world tolled the knell for France. But France instead of declining into the have-been nations showed that a controlled birth rate can be raised as well as lowered. Slowly and apparently intentionally she raised her rate during the succeeding years.
Decline and rise of French Birth rate: 1881–5, 2.5; 1886–90, 1.1; 1891–5, 0.0; 1896–1900, 1.2; 1901–5, 1.6; 1906–10, .7. Nor has France since those early nineties allowed her birth rate to fall below her death rate.
The populations of European nations are increasing, because the death rates are falling faster than the birth rates.
If we subtract the deaths per thousand inhabitants, given in the second table, from the births per thousand inhabitants given in the first table, we shall have the natural rate of increase. In every single case the number of births is greater than the number of deaths—so every country is increasing in population.
| Natural Increase in Population per 1,000 Inhabitants | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1881–5 | 1906–10 | |
| Russia (European) | 13.7 | 16.8[[6]] |
| The Netherlands | 13.4 | 15.3 |
| German Empire | 11.7 | 14.4[[6]] |
| Hungary | 11.5 | 11.7 |
| England and Wales | 14.1 | 11.5 |
| Italy | 10.7 | 11.4 |
| Austria | 8.1 | 11.3 |
| Belgium | 10.1 | 10.7[[6]] |
| Spain | 3.8 | 9.3 |
| France | 2.5 | .7 |
[6]. Figures for previous five years.
From the second column we find that Russia is increasing most rapidly. The Netherlands comes second in rate of increase—an honorable position to which the regulationists point triumphantly when they assert that control of the birth rate does not mean the ruin of the nation. The German Empire comes next, with Hungary following. England stands fifth in the rating of increase, and England takes the position with woeful lamentations. Italy, Austria, Belgium, and Spain are near the foot of the list, and France brings up the rear a long, long way behind. France is the only one that is anywhere in sight of a stationary population.
Excepting France and England, every one of these countries is increasing at a faster rate than formerly, because though the birth rate has fallen fast, the death rate has fallen faster. By comparing the second column showing the increase in the 1906–10 period with the first column showing the increase in the 1881–5 period, in the preceding table, we see how much each country is gaining in her rate of increase. This increase may or may not be considered desirable according to whether one wishes to conserve the food supply or increase the army. To every one it presents an interesting condition. It is unexpected to find with a falling birth rate an increasingly increasing population,—always excepting France and England.
FROM “THE EMPIRE AND THE BIRTH-RATE”
By C. V. Drysdale, D.Sc.