If the re-coinage has been in the proportion necessary to re-establish exactly the former facility in all the channels of circulation, the former prices will return after the inevitable fluctuations; the quarter of wheat, for instance, which at some period of the revolution, will have been raised to 20s. will fall back to 5s. as it was at the beginning, although the shilling contains only half the silver that it contained at that time, 130 grains we shall say, instead of the 260 or 264 it contained in the year 1300.
Fifth Hypothesis.
Now let us suppose, what has happened in all countries, that the Prince and his Ministers have laid hold of the opportunity, the former, to pay the debts he had incurred in the time of national distress and confusion, the latter, to procure a more rapid increase of their fortunes, and that, with the 1,500,000l. supposed in circulation, they have struck 6 millions, instead of the 3 wanted to answer the real increase of the revenues and of population;—certainly when the calm returns, 10s. will be the price of a quarter of wheat, which sold for 5s. in the first hypothesis;—a most decisive argument this, for the manufacturer to sell at 8 that very cloth which went for 4, and an uncontrovertible ground of right in the working people to charge 4d. for that which before they performed at 2d.—In these two points center all the practical inferences in which any individual in the State can be concerned: yet the shilling will contain only 65 grains of silver, instead of 260;—and if the price of every thing be doubled, it is not on account of the shilling containing only 65 grains in lieu of 260, since, upon this principle, the quarter of wheat must have fetched 20s. instead of 10s.—but it is because, in all cases, there are two pieces of money to answer the purpose of one, and that it was necessary, in order that the second might acquire one half of its former value, that the first should lose that very half.
Sixth Hypothesis.
At this period, let it be supposed, that an epidemical distemper sweeps off three-fourths of the inhabitants, and consequently takes away as much from the revenue:—After the terrors usual in such cases, and a score of prophecies, foretelling that Doomsday is at hand, yet will it appear that the world is not destroyed: it will also appear, that the epidemical disorder has not carried off the money, and that it would be wrong not to make use of it.—The specie must of course, lose nearly three fourths of its value if the whole should continue in circulation, because 4 pieces will present themselves to do the office which 1 could perform before the time of the distemper;—the quarter of wheat, at first rated at 5 shillings, sunk to 4 in the second hypothesis, then sold for 10 in the fifth, will in the present one, rise up to 40, without any one growing richer or poorer for it; for, most assuredly, the price of labour will have increased in proportion to that of its own produce.
Seventh Hypothesis.
The effect would have been the same, if, instead of the distemper just supposed, the general enthusiasm on the discovery of a gold or silver mine, had induced the Sovereign to add to the circulation three times the quantity of specie which had hitherto been sufficient.
Eighth Hypothesis.
In the supposition of an event the most opposite to that of an epidemic disease, viz. of the revenue being increased one half, one third, nay, three fourths, if you please, as well as the population; yet the mine yielding a great deal above what is necessary to answer to an increase in all kinds, and the Sovereign being resolved upon a recoinage of the specie, on principles entirely different from the former, that is, by preserving exactly the same number, standard, and denomination of the coin; the number, because it is sufficient; the denomination, because there must be one, and that it is indifferent which it bears; and the standard, because there is no further danger in fixing it; but, by advancing the weight of a shilling from 65 to 86 grains, there will certainly be no alteration in the prices; the wheat will keep up at 40 shillings, and other articles in the same proportion;—and none will be richer or poorer for it, although, at the price of 40s. the quarter of wheat, they give, without hesitation, 3440 grains of silver for an article for which they gave 650 only, previous to the epidemic disease, or the opening of the mine, which has produced the same effect.