Eleventh Hypothesis.

In the year 1779, the taxes in England amounted, I shall say, to 10 millions; I shall suppose too, that this was the tenth part of the general produce of the land and industry: therefore the 10th part of the nominal value of that general produce belonged to the tax, or was necessitated by the tax; the 40 shillings, which, to facilitate my operations, I shall also suppose to be the average price of the quarter of wheat, must then have been considered as the necessary price, or the price necessitated by the tax, and 36s. as the natural price, or the price acquired by the sole, natural increase of the national wealth. But in order that those 36s. might be called the natural price, the taxes should have been divided in such a manner as to load each particular article with a 9th part of its value; that is to say, that each individual, possessed of a property denominated 9, should see it charged only with one ninth more, in consequence of a general poll-tax, which we shall suppose to have been assessed with the utmost impartiality. In effect, it appears, that in this case the proprietor of a quarter of wheat, who, in consequence of the tax, would have raised the wheat from 36 to 40s. could not be said to have injured the hatter, who would sell him for 40 guineas the 40 hats which, previously to the poll-tax, he used to let him have for 36 guineas. It also appears, that the hatter could not be injured by giving 10 to the workman, instead of the 9 which he had hitherto paid; and that, in fine, if 27 millions had proved sufficient for circulation formerly, three millions more, once found, were fully adequate to the annual and perpetual payment of those 10 millions of taxes, without any one being a sufferer, but at the instant of the first payment. This system is deficient only in point of practicability; it is not established in England: 36 shillings therefore are not the natural price of wheat; the wheat certainly owes above 4 shillings to the taxes, if its current price amounts to 40s.

Let it be observed, nevertheless, that if the system of a poll-tax could be reduced to practice, if it were not of all systems the most absurd, though the easiest for government, if it were not of all systems that in which it is most evidently impossible to avoid thousands of injuries to the subject, one might establish now in England a new tax of 10 millions annually, and pay it for ever, without altering in the least the condition of anybody, provided one could find previously, and once for all, 2,600,000l. and that wheat should advance in price from 40s. to 43s. 4d. and every thing else in proportion. This appears to me so glaringly evident, that it extorts from me the affirmative tone. Now as soon as this should be effected, the burden of the tax would clearly be NULL.

But, it will be objected, the price of wheat is not thus arbitrarily advanced:—certainly not; for were this to be the case, it might also be lowered at pleasure, and would every other day, alternately rise from 1 to 80s. and fall from 80 to 1, since for this operation (become indispensable) it would suffice that there should be in all the provinces of England as many bodies-corporate (corporations) in agriculture, as there are in industry. I am even inclined to think, that it would then be minutely examined, Whether it be in fact advantageous to agriculture, that the merchants export more goods than they import? (a due attention being paid to the five articles so often mentioned, which render necessary the importation of bullion); a question of the utmost importance, to which I do not see that any body has hitherto attended, and which might be so easily determined, if my principles are just.

Effects of a Land-Tax.

All taxes, it is said, fall on the land at last. Land is the true, the only spring of wealth; wealth should be taxed at its very source.

It is certain, that merely by knowing how the matter stands, we know how to proceed accordingly; and that, in the long-run, every thing arranges itself in the least exceptionable manner that the system of taxation will permit. The following is probably the course which things would take, in the system of a land-tax, if it were necessary now to lay on the land a new tax of 10 millions annually, supposing always the landed revenue at 60 millions, and the quarter of wheat at 40 shillings.

Twelfth Hypothesis.

(I must premise, that in all I have now to say, not only on the present hypothesis, but on all those that follow, I build on this principle; that, from the moment every individual pays the tax, nobody pays it; that nevertheless its produce reverts to the creditors of the State, and that therefore every body is interested in carrying matters to that issue as soon as possible.—If there never existed in the average of prices any revolution so sudden, so great, and constant in its effect, as the one which I am about to suppose; it is because it never was necessary to lay all at once 10 millions of taxes. The effect produced by one million on a revenue like that which England enjoys, is so trifling, so gradual, that it never can be felt.—But to my hypothesis).

The march of industry is always firm; she can never be bewildered by her guide. A tax of 2 shillings upon a hat will soon occasion either an alteration in the quality, or a proportionate increase in its price[7]. Nothing more just. But agriculture has only one resource; she cannot alter the quality of her productions, and she is always timid when she wants to increase their prices. Let it be granted, however, that the first attempt of the cultivator will be to enhance boldly the price of his goods, in a proportion which may return him the amount of the tax supposed to be of 10 millions: his wheat, of course, will rise from 40 to 46s. 8d. and so with regard to other productions; then his revenue, instead of 60, will be 70 millions; but, being obliged to lay down 10 for the tax, he will have only 60 millions left.