Spain's responsibilities
Dire news too came from Central Europe, which foreshadowed the need of yet greater sacrifices for Spain. The meteoric Swede, Gustavus Adolphus, had entered the field on the side of France (January 1631), and was sweeping all before him. One imperial city after the other opened its gates to him, and some of the Emperor's feudatories who had been considered the most loyal rallied to the victorious enemy. The empire was altogether inadequate to face the strong new combination against it, and could only, as usual, appeal to Spain for resources. Looking back at the position with our present lights, it is impossible to understand the besotted folly that led Philip and his minister to assume the main burden of a war such as this. They had nothing material to gain by it. The religion, and even the territorial disputes, of the German princes were of no real importance to Spain, and a nation in the terrible financial and industrial condition of the latter was not justified in further consummating its ruin for the sake of an already outworn sentiment.
Fresh embarrassments
Another trouble almost as pressing as the Emperor's war loomed also in the near future. The old Infanta Isabel was rapidly sinking to her grave childless; and in accordance with the calamitous agreement of 1598, the Flemish dominions of the house of Burgundy were to revert in that case to the crown of Spain, a fatal inheritance, the Flemish States being open to attack from France on one side and Holland on the other, and destined to keep Spain at war until the final catastrophe overwhelmed both nation and dynasty. Olivares had kept the two Infantes in the background until now; though, as we have seen by his paper of six years before, he had always foreseen the ultimate necessity of sending Fernando, the young Cardinal, to Flanders as his brother's representative. Carlos, silent, amiable, unambitious, and lacking in vitality, gave the minister little cause for anxiety; but Fernando was by far the cleverest of his house. The nobles of Castile were already looking to him as a possible leader against Olivares; and at last it was decided that Fernando should go to Flanders, to be near his aunt, and succeed as Governor for his brother when the Infanta should die. Carlos being, as he said, a man of arms, for once plucked up spirit to protest and claim his right, as senior, to go to Flanders, but Olivares said that after Baltasar Carlos, "who had growne sickly of late, and there is some doubt whether the King will have any more children,"[[32]] he (Carlos) was his brother's heir, and could not be allowed to go far away. He was mollified by promises that were never kept, that he should be sent to command in Portugal or Catalonia; but in the summer of next year, 1632, as will be told, he sickened and died unmarried, greatly, no doubt, to the relief of Olivares, who dreaded the possibility of his being made a figurehead by his enemies.[[33]]
It was not easy to send Fernando to Flanders, even after it was decided to do so, and many months passed before even the money could be raised and preparations made for his going. Hopton wrote in August 1631: "The Infante Cardinal hastens his going to Flanders, and has arranged to borrow of the Fucars 240,000 ducats at 40,000 per month. The matter is so forward that the brokers have received the first payment, but I do not believe that he will go; for if he do it will be no easy matter to stay Carlos going to Portugal, and it is not likely that the King will leave the realm so destitute of his brothers, and expose them to the familiarity with those who may be dangerous to him." A month later he reported that, after all, the young Cardinal was not to go that year, "but may slip away secretly, in imitation of our King's coming hither."
In fact, serious news had suddenly reached Olivares from Central Europe. The battle of Breitenfeld, in which the Emperor's best General, Tilly, had been routed by Gustavus Adolphus, had made the latter master of Germany, and if he chose to march on, Vienna itself was at his mercy. Dismay reigned amongst the imperialists at this crushing blow, and as soon as Olivares received the news at the end of September he sent for Hopton, late at night. The Englishman found him in great agitation. "There is no time for words," he said, "but for God's sake send to England post haste, telling them to send to Vienna at once every offer that may facilitate an arrangement with the Emperor. I speak out of my goodwill to England, and I am sending to Vienna with the same object." The real end of Olivares' move is evident. In the critical position of the imperialists, with most of the Emperor's feudatories falling away and John Frederick of Saxony in arms against him, joined to Sweden and France, this was the opportunity, if ever, for England to strike an effectual blow for the Palatinate. It is true that the Marquis of Hamilton and some Scottish mercenaries were already with Gustavus Adolphus, but this was not national war; and if England could be diverted into diplomatic negotiations during this time of the imperialists' adversity, all might be well, but if she joined the allies the house of Austria was ruined; and for the next few weeks, whilst the danger lasted, nothing could exceed the amiability of Olivares to the English.[[34]]
Blow after blow continued to fall upon the imperial cause. Gustavus at Mayence was practically the master of Europe, the Spanish fleet had been defeated off Flanders. Tilly was utterly crushed and killed at Ingolstadt, and a revolt had broken out in Spanish Sicily against the new taxes of Olivares. Worst of all, when the minister decreed that the salt tax should be levied in the autonomous Basque provinces, the assembly there flatly refused to pay it. Olivares blustered that he would send 30,000 soldiers to make them. "We will await their coming," replied the assembly, "with 3000 and beat them."[[35]] And so gradually the policy of Olivares, which kept Spain at war with Europe for a barren idea, was leading the outer realms of the Peninsula itself towards rebellion, a thing unheard of for generations, because of their fear that they too were marked out by the minister to undergo the same fate as unhappy Castile.
Olivares and England