CHAPTER XLIV.
“OLD PROBABILITIES’” WORKSHOP—HOW WEATHER CALCULATIONS
ARE MADE.
“Old Probabilities”—An Interesting Subject—The Weather Bureau—The Experience of Fifty Centuries—Value of Scientific Knowledge—Meteorological Observations—Brigadier-General Albert J. Meyer—His Life and Career—He Introduces System and Order—Foreseeing the Approach of Storms—The Fate of the Metis—Quicker than the Storm—The First Warning by Telegraph—Exchanging Reports with Canada—The “Observing Stations”—Protecting the River Commerce—The Signal Corps—The Examinations—The Sergeant’s Duties—The Signal-Stations—The Work of the Observers—Preparing Bulletins at Washington—Professor Maury’s Account—Safeguards Against Mistakes—Deducing Probabilities—Despatching Bulletins—Preparing Meteorological Maps—Recording Observations—Watching the Storm—The Storm at San Francisco—Prophetic Preparations—Perfect Arrangements—Training the Sergeants—General Meyer’s Work—“Away up G Street”—The Home of Old and Young “Probabilities”—An Extraordinary Mansion—The “Kites and Windmills”—Inside the Mansion—The Apparatus—“The Unerring Weather-Man”—“Old Probabilities” Himself—How Calculations are Made—“Young Probabilities”—Interesting Facts.
There is no theme, not excepting marriage, birth, and death, that is more absorbing than “the weather.” It has made and unmade kingdoms, it has brought triumph in battle, and terrible defeat, it has brought woe and death; but that was before the day of “Old Probabilities,” or the Weather Bureau.
It is your own fault now, if your wedding-day is wet and gloomy, or if the rain pours into the open grave of the best-beloved. If you follow the weather report, you will know days before what the weather, in all probability, will be, and the report seldom fails. Even ten years ago, who would have thought that he could so soon find in the newspaper the almost unfailing prophecy of the skies of the coming day! Think of the millions of anxious faces which have turned sky-ward since the earth began! What eager and ignorant eyes have peered upward, to descry the portents of the unseen, yet brooding storm. Ignorance has already given place to knowledge, to a scientific forecasting of the elements, to a forestatement of the conditions of earth and air.
This wonderful fact, in its influence, penetrates not only to the finest fibre of social happiness, but influences all the civilizations of the earth. Although the changes of the atmosphere have seemed the most apparent of all the workings of nature, and have been more closely watched, and more constantly commented on by mankind, than all others taken together, after the lapse of fifty centuries, the desultory observer is unable to predict certainly the weather of a single day.
The value of accurate scientific knowledge on a subject which affects vitally the agricultural and commercial interests of the world, as well as the physical health and spiritual happiness of mankind, cannot be overestimated.
By a joint resolution of Congress, approved February 9, 1870, the Secretary-of-War was authorized and required to provide for taking meteorological observations at the military stations in the interior of the continent, and at other points in the States and Territories of the United States, and for giving notice on the northern lakes, and on the sea-coast, by magnetic telegraph and marine signals, of the approach and force of storms.
This special service was intrusted to the immediate supervision and control of General Albert J. Meyer. The following record of his services, in the United States Army, can but slightly indicate his peculiar fitness for the position which he now holds.
Brevet Brigadier-General Albert J. Meyer, Colonel and Chief Signal Officer, United States Army, was born in New York, and appointed Assistant-Surgeon, United States Army, from that State, September, 1854. He served on the Texas frontier, in the Rio Grande Valley, and at Fort Davis, Texas, to 1857; on special duty, signal service, 1858 to 1860. He was appointed Major and Chief Signal Officer, United States Army, July, 1860. In the Department of New Mexico to May, 1861; on staff of General Butler, Fort Monroe, Va., June, 1861; organized and commanded Signal Camp, Fort Monroe, Va.; Aide-de-Camp to General McDowell at first battle of Bull Run, Va.; Chief Signal Officer on staff of General McClellan, and commanded Signal Corps, Army of the Potomac, to October, 1862; charge of Signal Office, Washington, D. C., to November, 1863.
He was appointed Colonel and Chief Signal Officer, United States Army, March, 1863; member of Central Board of Examination for admission to Signal Corps from April, 1863; on reconnoissance of the Mississippi River, between Cairo, Ill., and Memphis, Tenn., December, 1863, to May, 1864; Chief Signal Officer, Military Division of West Mississippi, May, 1864; Colonel and Chief Signal Officer, United States Army, July, 1866. He was brevetted Lieutenant-Colonel, United States Army, for gallant and meritorious services at the battle of Hanover Courthouse, Va.; Colonel, United States Army, for gallant and meritorious services at the battle of Malvern Hill, Va.; and Brigadier General, United States Army, for distinguished services in organizing, instructing, and commanding Signal Corps of the army, and for its especial service at Allatoona[Allatoona], Ga., October 5, 1864.