SOCIAL—CULTURAL
Public education has been one of the chief victims of war and social and economic disruption. Schoolhouses, textbooks and other equipment have been destroyed and the cost of replacing my considerable portion cannot now be met. Teachers, like other public servants, have seen the purchasing power of a month’s salary shrink to the market value of a few days’ rice ration. This applies to the entire educational system, from primary schools, which provide a medium to combat the nation’s grievous illiteracy, to universities, from which must come the nation’s professional men, technicians and administrators. The universities have suffered in an additional and no less serious respect—traditional academic freedom. Students participating in protest demonstrations have been severely and at times brutally punished by National Government agents without pretense of trial or public evidence of the sedition charged. Faculty members have often been dismissed or refused employment with no evidence of professional unfitness, patently because they were politically objectionable to government officials. Somewhat similarly, periodicals have been closed down “for reasons of military security” without stated charges, and permitted to reopen only after new managements have been imposed. Resumption of educational and other public welfare activities on anything like the desired scale can be accomplished only by restraint of officialdom’s abuses, and when the nation’s economy is stabilized sufficiently to defray the cost of such vital activities.
MILITARY
The overall military position of the National Government has deteriorated in the past several months and the current military situation favors Communist forces. The Generalissimo has never wavered in his contention that he is fighting for national independence against forces of an armed rebellion nor has he been completely convinced that the Communist problem can be resolved except by force of arms. Although the Nationalist Army has a preponderance of force, the tactical initiative rests with the Communists. Their hit-and-run tactics, adapted to their mission of destruction at points or in areas of their own selection, give them a decided advantage over Nationalists, who must defend many critical areas including connecting lines of communication. Obviously large numbers of Nationalist troops involved in such defensive roles are immobilized whereas Communist tactics permit almost complete freedom of action. The Nationalists’ position is precarious in Manchuria, where they occupy only a slender finger of territory. Their control is strongly disputed in Shantung and Hopei Provinces where the Communists make frequent dislocating attacks against isolated garrisons.
In order to improve materially the current military situation, the Nationalist forces must first stabilize the fronts and then regain the initiative. Further, since the government is supporting the civil war with approximately seventy per cent of its national budget, it is evident that steps taken to alleviate the situation must point toward an improvement in the effectiveness of the armed forces with a concomitant program of social, political and economic reforms, including a decrease in the size of the military establishment. Whereas some rather ineffective steps have been taken to reorganize and revitalize the command structure, and more sweeping reforms are projected, the effectiveness of the Nationalist Army requires a sound program of equipment and improved logistical support. The present industrial potential of China is inadequate to support military forces effectively. Chinese forces under present conditions cannot cope successfully with internal strife or fulfill China’s obligations as a member of the family of nations. Hence outside aid, in the form of munitions (most urgently ammunition) and technical assistance, is essential before any plan of operations can be undertaken with a reasonable prospect of success. Military advice is now available to the Nationalists on a General Staff level through American military advisory groups. The Generalissimo expressed to me repeatedly a strong desire to have this advice and supervision extended in scope to include field forces, training centers and particularly logistical agencies.
Extension of military aid by the United States to the National Government might possibly be followed by similar aid from the Soviet Union to the Chinese Communists, either openly or covertly—the latter course seems more likely. An arena of conflicting ideologies might be created as in 1935 in Spain. There is always the possibility that such developments in this area, as in Europe and the Middle East, might precipitate a third world war.
Part III—Korea
POLITICAL
The major political problem in Korea is that of carrying out the Moscow Agreement of December, 1945, for the formation of a Provisional Korean Government to be followed by a Four-Power Trusteeship over Korea. The United States-Soviet Joint Commission, established in accordance with that Agreement, reached a deadlock in 1946 in the effort to implement the Moscow Agreement due to Soviet opposition to consultations with the Commission by all Korean democratic parties and social organizations, as provided for in that Agreement. Soviet motives have been to eliminate the extreme rightist groups in the United States zone from consultations and subsequently from participation in the new government thus ensuring a Communist-dominated government in Korea. Soviet objections to such consultations have been based on the rightist groups’ openly expressed opposition to trusteeship, while the United States has taken the position that to disqualify these groups would deprive a large section of the Korean people of an opportunity to express views regarding their government.
A resumption of the Joint Commission meetings in May, 1947, following an exchange of notes between Secretary Marshall and Foreign Minister Molotov, resulted in a further deadlock on the same issue, although these notes had established a formula which would have permitted participation in consultation by the rightist groups in question. After the Soviet Government failed to reply to Secretary Marshall’s note of August 12, requesting the submission by the Commission of a joint status report or separate reports by each Delegation, the United States Delegation, on August 20, transmitted a unilateral report to Washington. An American proposal then made to China, the United Kingdom, and the Soviet Union for a Four-Power Conference to discuss Korea has been agreed to by China and the United Kingdom, but has been rejected by the Soviet Union.