Sound Military Decision

by Naval War College

The Use of a Form in the Solution of Problems

The natural mental processes (see [page 19]) are employed in all of the four steps. The processes, in each step, require modification to an extent dependent upon the factors to be evaluated.

A form has been adopted for the application of the mental processes in the first step. This form, long known to the military profession as The outline of The Estimate of The Situation (see Appendix), sets forth in a logical manner and order the several considerations likely to influence the selection of correct military objectives in problems of wide, as well as of lesser, scope. The use of this form is conducive to uniformity of reasoning. It centers the attention upon essentials, in order to ensure that no material factor bearing on the solution of the problem is overlooked. It guides thought along a specific path and, through the influence of suggestion, deliberately increases the expenditure of mental effort.

The procedure indicated in the form contributes to the Decision reached as a result of an Estimate of the Situation, only to the extent that it provides an outline for, and encouragement of, systematic analysis and reasoning.

To prove successful in stimulating rather than stifling creative thought, flexibility is a characteristic of any form capable of application in such dissimilar circumstances as may be presented by the varying scope of military problems. The Estimate Form is such a flexible guide. If a commander, in solving a problem, feels the need of greater flexibility, he may, of course, modify or adapt the form to his particular needs. In so doing, however, he bears in mind that departure from orderly processes of reasoning, on which the form is based, tends, through possible neglect of fundamental considerations, to lead to the omission of essential features of the analysis.

On the other hand, a rigid following of the form may frequently cause much repetition. This may be avoided, unless desired for emphasis or other appropriate reasons, by reference back to preceding portions of the estimate. It is also to be noted, however, that the Estimate Form is adapted to a progressive procedure. Very frequently the earlier consideration of some aspect of the problem can later be expanded both in scope and in proper detail by reason of additional information which has become available during the intervening stages of the procedure.

The distinction between certain strategical and tactical problems ([page 83]) may introduce variations in the handling of the Estimate Form, and may affect the weight to be given the various factors. The use of the Estimate Form, as described in Chapter VI, applies in full to problems which embrace the complete scope of broad strategical concepts. It is suitable also for problems of limited scope, for which certain modifications or abbreviations are required. When applied to problems of a detailed tactical nature, the emphasis on the factors of fighting strength is somewhat different from that for strategical problems. For certain subsidiary problems ([page 106]), the Form may be closely applicable or may require considerable adaptation. In no case is it difficult to modify the Form to suit the requirements of the problem.

An estimate of a relatively broad strategical situation may normally be reduced to writing, because time is usually available. On the other hand, an estimate of a localized tactical situation frequently requires almost instantaneous decision. Except in the preparation of plans to meet contingencies, such an estimate can rarely be given the elaborate form frequent in estimates of situations which are broadly strategical in nature. When such tactical plans are prepared well in advance of the event, the commander bases the estimate upon various assumptions as to the circumstances of a probable situation.

The written solution of tactical situations under various assumptions is a valuable feature of training to this end.

During the second step, i.e., the resolution of the action, as embodied in the Decision, into the detailed operations required, the method considered most helpful is to arrange the procedure on the basis of the salient features of a military operation ([page 39] and Section III of Chapter IV). This procedure facilitates not only the determination of the necessary operations, but also the later formulation of directives.