(ii) Economic Factors. The capacity, organization, and mobilization of industry influence the rapidity and adequacy with which material is prepared for, and supplied to, the armed forces. The acceptance by the civilian population of sacrifices, caused by the diversion to war uses of the productive capacity of industry, will have a direct bearing upon the industrial capacity of that State.
The ability and willingness to finance the war effort, which includes the ability to tax, to float internal loans, and to create foreign credits, may well determine the extent and duration of the national capability for war.
The dependence of a nation upon the continuation of foreign trade, including the necessity of obtaining new markets and new sources of supply, affects its strength. No State yet has complete autarchy. Thus, there is the necessity of obtaining from foreign sources certain of the raw materials which are indispensable to the war effort. As each belligerent may endeavor to deny sources of raw materials to the other, a portion of the fighting power may be required for trade protection.
(iii) Psychological Factors. The maintenance of a stable morale ([page 72]) at a high level is a primary concern. Such stability inures the nation or command against the full effects of surprise, fear, disappointment, despondency, and other weakening moral influences, while at the same time taking full advantage of those influences which strengthen the moral fiber of a people.
Training and experience influence morale, playing a part difficult to overestimate. They provide a basis for evaluating discipline. A study of the history of the State may prove valuable in estimating the present condition in this respect; a nation or command which may be classed as a veteran has an advantage over a beginner at the art of war.
Another important factor relates to the existence of the skills necessary for the production and use of the material means of war. The control of skilled personnel is a psychological consideration of great importance.
Unity of effort, or the lack of it, especially between management and labor, may be one of the most important factors of the estimate.
Special attention is desirable as to national inventiveness and versatility in the production of new and surprising means of war or in development of methods that in any way contribute to a successful war effort.
Racial or national characteristics may affect the estimates of morale and training. Reactions of various races or groups to the conditions of war have been sufficiently recorded, on the basis of past performance, to prove of some value. Service traditions may furnish clues for correct evaluation of psychological factors.
While only the physical elements of fighting strength are susceptible of quantitative comparison, failure to take account of mental and moral factors may involve serious error. Nevertheless, in many situations, such factors remain relatively indeterminate until subjected to test. Inferences may be drawn, and deductions made, on a basis of peace-time observation and of historical precedent. In these, racial and national characteristics may figure prominently. History, however, has taught that, in a conflict between modern industrial and military nations, it is unwise to entertain any assumption other than that of moral equality until such time as the conflict has demonstrated the existence of a difference, and the degree thereof, or unless prior experience, observation, and acquaintance unquestionably warrant otherwise.