We may gather some idea of the morasses into which the conception of nationalism and its ‘mystic impulses’ may lead us when applied to the population problem by examining some current discussions of it. Dr Raymond Pearl, of John Hopkins University, summarises certain of his conclusions thus:—
‘There are two ways which have been thought of and practised, by which a nation may attempt to solve its problem of population after it has become very pressing and after the effects of internal industrial development and its creation of wealth have been exhausted. These are respectively the methods of France and Germany. By consciously controlled methods, France endeavoured, and on the whole succeeded, in keeping her birth-rate at just such a delicate balance with the death-rate as to make the population nearly stationary. Then any industrial developments simply operated to raise the standard of living of those fortunate enough to be born. France’s condition, social economy, and political, in 1914 represented, I think, the results of about the maximum efficiency of what may be called the birth-control method of meeting the problem of population.
‘Germany deliberately chose the other plan of meeting the problem of population. In fewest words the scheme was, when your population pressed too hard upon subsistence, and you had fully liquidated the industrial development asset, to go out and conquer some one, preferably a people operating under the birth-control population plan, and forcibly take his land for your people. To facilitate this operation a high birth-rate is made a matter of sustained propaganda, and in every other possible way encouraged. An abundance of cannon fodder is essential to the success of the scheme.’[30]
A word or two as to the facts alleged in the foregoing. We are told that the two nations not only followed respectively two different methods, but that it was in each case a deliberate national choice, supported by organised propaganda. ‘By consciously controlled methods, France,’ we are told, ‘endeavoured’ to keep her birth-rate down. The fact is, of course, that all the conscious endeavours of ‘France,’ if by France is meant the Government, the Church, the learned bodies, were in the exactly contrary direction. Not only organised propaganda, but most elaborate legislation, aiming through taxation at giving a preference to large families, has for a generation been industriously urging an increase in the French population. It has notoriously been a standing dish in the menu of the reformers and uplifters of nearly every political party. What we obviously have in the case of France is not a decision made by the nation as a corporate body and the Government representing it, but a tendency which their deliberate decision, as represented by propaganda and legislation, has been unable to check.[31]
In discussing the merits of the two plans, Dr Pearl goes on:—
‘Now the morals of the two plans are not at issue here. Both are regarded, on different grounds to be sure, as highly immoral by many people. Here we are concerned only with actualities. There can be no doubt that in general and in the long run the German plan is bound to win over the birth-control plan, if the issue is joined between the two and only the two, and its resolution is military in character.... So long as there are on the earth aggressively-minded peoples who from choice deliberately maintain a high birth-rate, no people can afford to put the French solution of the population problem into operation unless they are prepared to give up, practically at the asking, both their national integrity and their land.’
Let us assume, therefore, that France adopts the high birth-rate plan. She, too, will then be compelled, if the plan has worked out successfully, ‘to get out and conquer some one.’ But that some one will also, for the same reasons, have been following the plan of high birth-rate. What is then to happen? A competition in fecundity as a solution of the excess population problem seems inadequate. Yet it is inevitably prompted by the nationalist impulse.
Happily the general rise in the standard of life itself furnishes a solution. As we have seen, the birth-rate is, within certain limits, in inverse ratio to a people’s prosperity. But again, nationalism, by preventing the economic unification of Europe, may well stand in the way of that solution also. It checks the tendencies which would solve the problem.
A fall in the birth-rate, as a concomitant of a rising standard of living, was beginning to be revealed in Germany also before the War.[32] If now, under the new order, German industrialism is checked and we get an agricultural population compelled by circumstances to a standard of life not higher than that of the Russian moujik, we may perhaps also be faced by a revival of high fertility in mystic disregard of the material means available for the support of the population.
There is a further point.