The following are some of his calculations:—“By this table,” says the author, “we may bet 1 to 1 that a new-born infant will live 8 years; that a child of one year old will live 33 years more, that a child of full two years old will live 33 years and 5 months more, that a man of thirty will live 28 years more; that a man of forty will live 22 years longer, and so through the other ages.”
Buffon adds, “The age at which the longest life is to be expected is 7, because we may lay an equal wager, or 1 to 1, that a child of that age will live 42 years and 3 months longer. That at the age of twelve or thirteen, we have lived a fourth part of our life, because we cannot reasonably expect to live 38 or 39 years longer; that in like manner at the age of 28 or 29, we have lived one-half of our life, because we have but 28 years more to live; and lastly, that before fifty we have lived three-fourths of our life, because we can hope but for 16 or 17 years more.”
Some profound moral reflections followed these estimates; and as a critic of the day “thought all serious remarks out of place in an arithmetical calculation, and that M. Buffon had better reserve them for his book on beasts,” the reader will not be troubled with their repetition. He will not, however, be displeased to read the remarks on this table, by one of the annotators of the day.
“For insuring for 1 year the life of a child of three years old we ought to pay 10 per cent., for as it has by M. Buffon’s table an equal chance of living 40 years, it is 40 to 1 that it does not die in a year. In the same manner we ought to pay but 3 per cent. for insuring for 1 year the life of a lad of nineteen or twenty; but 4 per cent. for insuring for 1 year the life of a man of thirty-five; and 5 per cent. per annum for insuring for 1 year the life of a man of forty-three; after which the insurances ought to rise above 5 per cent. in proportion to the advance of a person’s age above forty-three. So that a man of seventy-seven ought to pay 25 per cent., and a man of eighty-five 33 1/2 per cent. for insuring his life for 1 year.”
CHAP. VII.
RISE AND PROGRESS OF THE EQUITABLE—ITS DANGERS AND ITS DIFFICULTIES—COMPARATIVE PREMIUMS.—SKETCH OF MR. MORGAN—HIS OPINIONS.—SINGULAR ATTEMPT TO DEFRAUD THE EQUITABLE—DEATH OF THE OFFENDER.—ATTEMPT OF GOVERNMENT TO ROB THE OFFICES.
The first meeting of the Equitable Society for the assurance of life and survivorship “was holden at the White Lion in Cornhill” in 1762, when only four assurances were effected. In the next four months their number did not exceed thirty; and so lightly were the prospects of the institution held by those having authority, that when the Attorney-General was applied to for an act of incorporation,—“I do not think the terms are sufficiently high,” was his intelligent opinion, “to justify me in advising the Crown to grant a charter.”
Such was the commencement of this institution. For many years prior, the Equitable had been struggling into being, aided by the lectures of “the justly celebrated Mr. Thomas Simpson,” but yet more by the strenuous exertion of Edward Rowe Mores, an accomplished antiquarian and an enlightened gentleman. To his “great pain and travel,” says the deed of settlement, “the society was indebted for its establishment,” and in return its promoter was made a director for life with an annuity of 100l.[11] Though its board of management included some of the first bankers and merchants of the day, yet then, as now, it seemed necessary to catch a peer of the realm to act as decoy, so Lord Willoughby de Parham, with no interest in its movements or concern in its affairs, was paraded before the public as patron and director, and at the end of two years was gravely thanked for the use of his name in maintaining the reputation of the novel society. It was probably, however, the working spirits, such as Sir Richard Glyn[12] and Sir Robert Ladbroke who took charge of its movements, and who were guilty of, or at any rate were responsible for, the double dealing which followed; for it is quite in keeping with the commercial integrity of the eighteenth century, that the directors, fearing its slow growth would injure its character, gave it the appearance of a more rapid advance, by adopting the unworthy expedient of calling the 25th policy the 275th, thus inducing the world to understand that the society consisted of 250 more members than its actual number. Thus the success of the Equitable institution may be dated from the mendacious employment of names, and from an absolute deception in the number of the policies. For many years, an utter indifference was exhibited by the policy holders about the concerns of the society. It was useless to advertise a general court, as a sufficient number to form a meeting did not answer to the call. Nor could a full court be procured until the cupidity of the members was appealed to, and five guineas were promised to the first twenty-one who should arrive before twelve o’clock. Then, and not till then, were the meetings properly attended; a fact which speaks loudly for the shrewdness of those who devised the scheme, and the avarice of those who formed the association.