It would seem advisable that such portion of a person's income as is devoted to charitable and kindred purposes should be, if not entirely free from income tax, at least subject to a reduced tax only, so as to counteract the tendency which experience has shown to follow in the wake of heavy taxation, of greatly diminishing charitable contributions.

2. There ought to be an excess profit tax which might well be at a considerably higher rate than the present 8 per cent., or even the proposed 16 per cent., but it should only be applicable to the extent that business profits exceed the profits of say a certain average period before the war and thus may justly be held to be attributable to war conditions.

In determining the basis for calculating excess profits, an offset which might be fixed at say 10 per cent. per annum, due consideration being given to the question of depreciation and to special circumstances, ought to be allowed on all new capital invested in business since the beginning of the war.

I think for the purpose of figuring the excess profit tax the five, four or three years before America's entrance into the war would probably form the most appropriate basis. The aggregate industrial plant of this country, the entire scale and scope of our commerce and its concomitants, have been so completely modified in the course of the European war that a comparison which leaves out of account the years 1915 and 1916 does not seem to me to fit the case. I believe, both from the point of view of economics and of public opinion, a tax of say 32 per cent. or even 40 per cent., or eventually, if needed, a still higher percentage, calculated on a reasonably high average of earnings (that is, an average including 1916) is preferable to a tax of 16 per cent. or 20 per cent. on an inordinately low average.

I believe that as between the proposed 16 per cent. profit tax and an excess profit tax on the British model, at the rate of say twice that figure—to begin with—the general consensus of opinion would consider the latter as much the fairer, much the less cumbersome to handle and collect, and much the less hampering upon business activities. Yet, statistics seem to show that such an excess profit tax would bring in a far larger return than the proposed 16 per cent. profit tax. From figures which were shown to me it would appear that a 40 per cent. tax on excess profits over and above the average earnings for the past three years would yield for the present year the amazing total of at least $800,000,000 (in addition to the yield from the corporate income tax taken at the rate of 4 per cent.).

These figures are based on the assumption that the aggregate profits for 1917 will approximately equal those of 1916—a not unreasonable assumption provided always that unscientific taxation or other unwise measures do not destroy prosperity. (As a matter of fact, the profits for the first half of 1917 are likely to exceed those for the same period of 1916.) The three-year average was selected on the theory that 1914 was an exceedingly poor business year, 1915 was a year of fair prosperity and in 1916 the full effect of our stupendous war business had come to raise profits to an exceedingly high level.

3. There are very numerous forms of taxes, stamp-taxes, etc. (such as, for instance, a 2 cent tax on checks), which, whilst they would mainly fall on the well-to-do, would be in no way burdensome, and would produce a very large aggregate of revenue.

What seems to me in principle a very sensible tax, has been suggested, namely, a tax on purchases (i.e., each single purchase) of all kinds of merchandise (excepting foodstuffs, and probably raw material) of one cent for each dollar or greater part thereof, exempting single purchases of less than say five dollars.

This tax, which should be paid by the purchaser, would produce a very large revenue. It would be borne mainly by the well-to-do, would be more widely distributed than almost any other form of taxation and would be felt but very little. It would be easily and cheaply collected and would begin to accrue much sooner than most other taxes.

4. I am not convinced that the total amount which needs to be spent or which as a matter of fact can be spent in the course of the year requires so huge a sum to be raised by taxation as our legislators appear to contemplate.