The history of the Dominican Republic affords a striking illustration of the rule that large bodies attract nearby smaller or weaker bodies whether in the world of physics or in international politics. The United States of America had scarcely become a nation when it began to absorb contiguous territory and exert a strong attraction on Cuba. With respect to Santo Domingo also, there was such attraction, as became evident in proposals for annexation or the establishment of a naval station. At times it appeared that the process was definitely checked, as when Spain annexed Santo Domingo in 1861, and when the United States Senate refused to annex the country in 1871, and when the Dominican Government cancelled the Samana Bay Concession in 1874, but these acts merely set back the clock of time which they could not stop.
When Porto Rico and Cuba were occupied by the United States the attraction exerted on Santo Domingo was powerfully increased. From that time on the Dominican Republic was in fact a protectorate of the United States, though neither American nor Dominican statesmen would have admitted it. The modus vivendi of 1905 and the fiscal convention of 1907 gave expression, in part, to relations actually existing.
A peculiar feature of the matter is that, except for a few very brief intervals, neither the United States nor the Dominican Republic has desired closer political relations and each country has done everything in its power to avoid them. The 1907 convention was approved in the United States Senate with only one vote to spare, and many of its supporters favored it principally because it was expected to obviate the necessity of further American intervention in Dominican affairs. It was believed that with the custom-houses removed from the political game the receipts and prosperity of the country would grow, revolutionists would no longer be able to finance uprisings, and civil wars would cease. The convention did indeed augment the country's revenues and prosperity, but it could not prevent uprisings entirely nor remove their causes. On the other hand it strengthened the bonds between the United States and Santo Domingo and led to the military occupation of 1916.
What will the future bring? There is every reason to believe that the same attraction of Santo Domingo by the United States will continue with greater strength than ever, despite all that may be said or done, on either side, to oppose it. It is a force which cannot be overcome, and had best, be recognized and reckoned with. It is unnecessary to consider the sentimental objections to closer political relations between the two countries. Conditions in Santo Domingo, in the United States, and in the world at large are the causes of this force of attraction, for which the government of neither country is responsible.
What then will the future relations between Santo Domingo and the United States be? It appears that at the present moment a plan similar to that tried in Haiti is under advisement, namely, to restore the Dominican government, but to leave the custom-houses under American administration, place the finances under American control, appoint an American supervisor of public works, and secure the peace by a police force under American officers. The real relations between the two countries would thus find further expression in the creation of a disguised protectorate.
As a permanent solution it is not probable that this plan will prove satisfactory. It tends to create two independent governments in the same country; on the one side the Dominican government which will consider itself supreme and sooner or later resent dictation or lack of sympathy on the part of the American officials, and on the other hand the police heads and other American officers who will brook no interference with what they deem their duty. Friction is bound to develop; it is impossible for two independent governments to work side by side in the same territory; one authority must be paramount. At first the plan may appear to operate successfully because the desires of the American officials will be respected, but later when the new Dominican government has outgrown the novelty of the situation there are certain to be reciprocal demands which may lead to opposition. Another possible source of difficulty is that even among the proposed American officials there is no recognized superior and that here also differences may arise. Rather than go so far and no further, it were better to attempt less.
The ultimate expression, more or less deferred, of the relations between the two countries, will most probably be a clearly defined protectorate with an amply authorized resident, or outright annexation. Which of these two courses is preferable? From a standpoint of the interests of the Dominican people annexation would appear better. A protected state has many obligations and few rights. It must defer to the wishes of the protector, but the protector is under no absolute duty to further its development or the happiness of its inhabitants. On the other hand, when annexed to the stronger state, it may expect and demand that interest be shown in its progress and well-being. While annexation would probably entail a temporary government by officials foreign to the country, American traditions would not permit such a condition to continue for any length of time and autonomy would eventually come.
From an American standpoint a protectorate would seem preferable. It would carry the advantages of annexation without its responsibilities, without the undesirable feature of bringing into our body politic a people foreign in race, language and customs, and with less danger of stirring up South American susceptibilities. It would, however, permit of less latitude for the improvement of conditions in Santo Domingo.
For some time to come it is probable that some form of protectorate will be the choice of both parties. Many American statesmen are opposed to annexation, and the Dominicans as a rule would prefer the phantom of sovereignty in a mediatized republic to the real advantages of annexation.
It is only natural that Dominicans should feel sad at passing under the government of a foreign power. But those of clearer vision recognize that there is no alternative, that the independence of the Republic has long been a fiction, that real freedom is only now beginning to dawn, and that American assistance will give the greatest impetus to prosperity. For several years the number of persons taking such a broader view has been rapidly increasing. It was not long ago when friends of mine in Santo Domingo would lead me to the middle of the plazza, out of hearing of any eavesdropper, and then with bated breath confide their conviction that the only salvation of the country lay in the United States. Ruin and sorrow brought by the civil wars have caused such ideas to spread and be openly expressed. At present it may be said that many Dominicans welcome American assistance, that the great majority accept it, and that only a small minority are bitterly opposed to it, and these objectors are principally former politicians and revolutionists whose opinion counts for least. The number of those favoring American intervention is being increased by the splendid administrative work of the present American authorities and would doubtless be still further augmented by valuable constructive legislation and by a more uniform display of tact and kindliness on the part of all American officials.