The highest estimates we have seen of the whole of the crops of the United Slates in 1849, do not exceed 140,000 hhds., of which it is not doubted that fully 45,000 hhds. will be required for consumption there, and we estimate the supply required for the consumption of Europe, South America, the West Indies, and Africa, at certainly not less than 125,000 hhds.; if these estimates be realised in fact, it will follow that the stocks at the close of this year must be 30,000 hhds. less than at the close of 1849.
We estimate the present consumption of American tobacco in Great Britain and Ireland as follows:—
The deliveries in London and Liverpool in 1849, were 18,738 hhds.; do. do. Bristol 1,400 hhds.; do. do. Scotland we assume at 2,800 hhds. Total 22,939.
Of Stripts, the deliveries in Liverpool last year were 8,544 hhds., of which about 300 were for exportation; the deliveries, therefore, were—For the use of Great Britain and Ireland, 8,250 hhds. In London we have no account of the deliveries of stripts, as distinguished from leaf, for the whole of last year; it is doubtless less than that in Liverpool, and we assume it at 7,000 hhds.; in Bristol it was about 900 hhds.; in Scotland we assume it at 2,400 hhds. Total 18,550 hhds.
Now, assuming 1,500 hhds. of the deliveries in Scotland and Bristol to be included in the coastwise returns in London and Liverpool, then the consumption of Great Britain and Ireland would appear to be about 21,500 hhds. of American tobacco, and 17,000 for these to be stripts. The progressive increase which we have shown in the returns of 1849, as compared with those of 1840, must still go on.
Without troubling you with any detail of the stocks in each of the several markets, it may be sufficient to show that the summary of the whole in all the markets of Europe, other than Great Britain, consisted on the 31st December, 1849, of about 22,000 hhds.; of which about 18,000 were Maryland and 2,000 stalks; and it is important to notice especially the fact, that the stocks of the manufacturers and dealers in Germany, Holland and Belgium are unusually small. We have taken very considerable care to inform ourselves on this point, and are fully satisfied that the usual stocks in second or dealers' hands do not exist. The whole demand of the year must, therefore, be supplied from those stocks in importers' hands, from England or from the United States.
The following were the prices current in London in the spring of 1853:—Virginia Leaf, common, per pound, 3¼d. to 3¾d.; middling, 5d. to 6d.; good and fine 6½d. to 7½d. Stripts, 5½d. to 10d. Kentucky Leaf: common 3d., to 3½d.; middling, 3¾d. to 4½d.; good and fine, 5d. to 6d. Stripts, 5d. to 7d. Maryland, 3½d. to 9d. Negrohead and Cavendish: common and heated, 4d. to 6d.; middling to good, 6d. to 8d. and 9d.; fine, 10d., 12d., 16d.; Barret's none. Columbian, 7d. to 1s. 8d.; Brazil, 3d. to 6d.; flat, 5d. to 1s. 1d.; Manilla, 7d. to 2s. 6d.; Havana, 10d. to 5s.; Yara, 11d. to 3s.; Cuba, 9d. to 1s. 1d.; ingars, 3s. to 16s.; cheroots, Manilla, 7s. 6d., nominal; German and Amersfoort 4d. to 1s. 3d.; stalks, duty paid, 2s. 6d. to 3s. 4d.; smalls, 2s. 9d to 2s.
The shipments to Europe were 76,516 hhds. against 40,652 hhds. the previous year, and 43,576 hhds. in 1850. The rapidity of sales, the diminished stocks even now held in first hands, were taken as an infallible index of the progressive rate of consumption; and of a truth the quantity of hogsheads received in the principal markets of Belgium, Holland, Germany, and the North, and as speedily relieved from the control of the importers, was enough to control even those who were alive to the existing necessities of Europe, and to give a color to the rumour of almost inexhaustible consumption.
This extraordinary demand for tobacco on the continent has been occasioned by three distinct causes; the first of which was the pressing wants which, for the last two years, were well known to have existed, and the constant willingness of consumers to act at the very moderate rates which prevailed some time last spring. The second was the compulsory purchases by the Austrian Government, amounting, it is estimated, to 20,000 hhds., by reason that the discontented Hungarians, for political considerations, abandoned altogether the cultivation of tobacco, and which deficiency was obliged to be replaced by American growths. The third cause also had a political origin: the anticipation of the extension of the Zollverein or German Customs League to the Kingdoms of Hanover and Oldenburg, whereby the duties on tobacco in those countries would be greatly increased, was a natural incentive to the dealers and manufacturers there to lay in heavy stocks, to reap the benefit thereon; and these last two causes, therefore, may be viewed in the light of fortuitous circumstances, which have fostered a speculation originally founded on the cheapness of money alone.
It has been shown, and the statistics of the past year fully confirm the statement, that a plethora of money and prosperity among the middle classes of society, while it induces to the consumption of tobacco in general, rather curtails than otherwise the demand for American growths. A poor man addicted to smoking takes his pipe not from choice, but necessity; as he grows independent, the humble pipe is abandoned and the more costly cigar assumed. We have frequently heard this matter noticed, more especially after the disasters which followed the railway speculations of 1846, when the demand for English cigars sensibly declined; and we have now a further verification of the assertion in the opposite sense, the sales of cigar materials in Bremen having been extended more than 40 per cent, in three years, viz., from 94,750 bales and cases in 1850 to 135,650 during last season.