"The next most interesting figure is the 'Children Surviving per Capita per Graduate.' This has fallen from over 2.50 to about 1.9. The per cent of childless marriages increased very markedly during the first two decades and held nearly level for the last two decades. For the last decade at Yale it has even dropped slightly, an encouraging sign. It is worthy of note that the number of children born to Yale graduates is almost constantly a trifle higher than that for Harvard, while the number of childless marriages is slightly less." This is probably owing to the larger proportion of Harvard students living in a large city.
If the birth-rate of graduates both of separate men's colleges and of separate women's colleges is alarmingly low, that of graduates of coeducational institutions is not always satisfactory, either. To some extent the low birth-rate is a characteristic of educated people, without regard to the precise nature of their education. In a study of the graduates of Syracuse University, one of the oldest coeducational colleges of the eastern United States, H. J. Banker found[123] that the number of children declined with each decade. Thus married women graduates prior to the Civil War had 2 surviving children each; in the last decade of the nineteenth century they had only one. For married men graduates, the number of surviving children had fallen in the same length of time from 2.62 to 1.38. When all graduates, married or not, are counted in the decade 1892-1901, it is found that the men of Syracuse have contributed to the next generation one surviving child each, the women only half a child apiece.
Dr. Cattell's investigation of the families of 1,000 contemporary American men of science all of which were probably not complete however, shows that they leave, on the average, less than two surviving children. Only one family in 75 is larger than six, and 22% of them are childless. Obviously, as far as those families are concerned, there will be fewer men of inherent scientific eminence in the next generation than in this.
The decline in the birth-rate is sometimes attributed to the fact that people as a whole are marrying later than they used to; we have already shown that this idea is, on the whole, false. The idea that people as a whole are marrying less than they used to is also, as we have shown, mistaken. The decline in the general birth-rate can be attributed to only one fact, and that is that married people are having fewer children.
The percentage of childless wives in the American stock is steadily increasing. Dr. Crum's figures show the following percentage of childless wives, in the New England genealogies with which he worked:
| 1750-1799 | 1.88 |
| 1800-1849 | 4.07 |
| 1850-1869 | 5.91 |
| 1870-1879 | 8.10 |
J. A. Hill[124] found, from the 1910 census figures, that one in eight of the native-born wives is childless, as compared with one in five among the Negroes, one in nineteen among the foreign born. Childlessness of American wives is therefore a considerable, although not a preponderant factor, in this decline of the birth rate.
Dr. Hill further found that from 10 marriages, in various stocks, the following numbers of children could be expected:
| Native-born women | 27 |
| Negro-born women | 31 |
| English-born women | 34 |
| Russian-born women | 54 |
| French Canada-born women | 56 |
| Polish-born women | 62 |
The women of the old American stock are on the whole more sterile or, if not sterile, less fecund, than other women in the United States. Why?