Taking the case of destitution, which includes, necessarily, most of the other evils specified, Professor Pearson measured the correlation with liability to phthisis and found it to be .02. The correlation for direct heredity—that is, the resemblance between parent and offspring—it will be remembered, is .50. As compared with this, the environmental factor of .02 is utterly insignificant. It seems evident that whether or not one dies from tuberculosis, under present-day urban conditions, depends mainly on the kind of constitution one has inherited.
There is no escape, then, from the conclusion that in any individual, death from tuberculosis is largely a matter of natural selection. But by taking a longer view, one can actually see the change to which natural selection is one of the contributors. The following table shows the deaths from consumption in Massachusetts, per 10,000 population:
| 1851-60 | 39.9 |
| 1861-70 | 34.9 |
| 1871-80 | 32.7 |
| 1881-90 | 29.2 |
| 1891-1900 | 21.4 |
| 1901 | 17.5 |
| 1902 | 15.9 |
F. L. Hoffman further points out[60] that in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut, 1872-1911, the decline in the death-rate from tuberculosis has been about 50%. "The evidence is absolutely conclusive that actually as well as relatively, the mortality from tuberculosis in what is the most intensely industrial area of America has progressively diminished during the last 40 years."
It will be noted that the great increase in death from consumption in this area began in the decade following 1840, when the large Irish immigration began. The Irish are commonly believed to be particularly susceptible to phthisis. Crowded together in industrial conditions, they rapidly underwent infection, and their weak racial resistance led to a high death-rate. The weak lines of heredity were rapidly cut off; in other words, the intensity of natural selection was great, for a while. The result was to leave the population of these New England states much more resistant, on the average, than it was before; and as the Irish immigration soon slowed down, and no new stocks with great weakness arrived, tuberculosis naturally tended to "burn itself out." This seems to be a partial explanation of the decline in the death-rate from phthisis in New England during the last half century, although it is not suggested that it represents the complete explanation: improved methods of treatment and sanitation doubtless played their part. But that they are the sole cause of the decline is made highly improbable by the low correlation between phthisis and environmental factors, which was mentioned above, and by all the other biometric study of tuberculosis, which has proved that the results ascribed to hygiene, including sanitorium treatment, are to some degree illusory.
That tuberculosis is particularly fatal to the Negro race is well known. Even to-day, after several centuries of natural selection in the United States, the annual death-rate from consumption among Negroes in the registration area is 431.9 per 100,000 population (census of 1900) as compared with 170.5 for the whites; in the cities alone it is 471.0. That overcrowding and climate can not be the sole factors is indicated by the fact that the Negro race has been decimated, wherever it has met tuberculosis. "In the years 1803 and 1810 the British government imported three or four thousand Negroes from Mozambique into Ceylon to form into regiments, and of these in December, 1820, there were left just 440, including the male descendants. All the rest had perished mainly from tuberculosis, and in a country where the disease is not nearly so prevalent as in England."[61] Archdall Reid has pointed out[62] that the American, Polynesian and Australian aborigines, to whom tuberculosis was unknown before the advent of Europeans, and who had therefore never been selected against it, could not survive its advent: they were killed by much smaller infections than would have injured a European, whose stock has been purged by centuries of natural selection.
These racial histories are the most important evidence available to the student of natural selection in man. The conclusion to be drawn from them seems plain. Natural selection, which has in the past never had an opportunity to act upon the Negro race through tuberculosis, is now engaged in hastening, at a relatively rapid rate, the evolution of this race toward immunity from death by tuberculosis. The evolution of the white race on this line is, as the figures show, going on simultaneously, but having begun centuries earlier, it is not now so rapid. The weakest white stocks were cut off hundreds of years ago, in Great Britain or Europe; those of the black race are only now going. Despite all the efforts of medicine and sanitation, it is likely that the Negro death-rate from phthisis will continue high for some years, until what is left of the race will possess a degree of resistance, or immunity, not much inferior to that of the whites among whom they live. The blacks in North America now must be already more resistant than their ancestors; the mulattoes descended of normal healthy unions should be more resistant than the pure Negroes, although no statistics are available on the point; but were a new immigration to take place from Africa to-day, and the immigrants to be put into villages with their Americanized brethren, the high death-rate would result.
While the Negroes were thus undergoing the radical surgery of natural selection, what was happening to the aborigines of America? The answer of history is unmistakable; they were meeting the same fate, in an even more violent form. Not tuberculosis alone, but small-pox, measles, alcohol and a dozen other importations of the conquerors, found in the aborigines of the New World a stock which had never been selected against these diseases.
It is the custom of sentimentalists sometimes to talk as if the North American Indian had been killed off by the white man. So he was,—but not directly: he was killed off by natural selection, acting through the white man's diseases and narcotics. In 1841 Catlin wrote, "Thirty millions of white men are now scuffling for the goods and luxuries of life over the bones of twelve millions of red men, six millions of whom have fallen victims to small-pox." Small-pox is an old story to the white race, and the death of the least resistant strains in each generation has left a population that is fairly resistant. It was new to the natives of America, and history shows the result. Alcohol, too, counted its victims by the thousand, for the same reason. The process of natural selection among the North American Indians has not yet stopped; if there are a century from now any Indians left, they will of necessity belong to stocks which are relatively resistant to alcohol and tuberculosis and the other widespread and fatal diseases which were unknown upon this continent before Columbus.
The decrease of natives following the Spanish conquest of tropical America has long been one of the most striking events of history. Popular historians sometimes speak as if most of the native population had been killed off by the cruelty of the conquistadores. Surely such talk could not proceed from those who are familiar with the action of natural selection. It is obvious that when the Spaniard brought the natives together, making them work in mines and assemble in churches, he brought them under conditions especially favorable for infection by the new diseases which he had brought. The aborigines of the New World, up to the time the Spaniards came, had undergone no evolution whatever against these diseases; consequently the evolution began at so rapid a rate that in a few centuries only those who lived in out-of-the-way places remain unscathed.