"When you return from America," Tuan said at parting, "everything will be settled, and the south will recognize our authority."
A sea-borne war expedition, sent to conquer the south, was in his mind. I could not but express my conviction of the impossibility of such an achievement but he was obstinate.
I divided my time in America between Washington and New York, save for a visit to my mother. In four weeks I saw representatives of most of the great interests, public and private, involved in China. I by no means stopped with the State Department. I saw the Secretary of War and the Adjutant General, on questions dealing with the recruiting of troops to be stationed in China; the Intelligence Division of the War Department and of the Navy, as well as the Committee on Public Information; the Secretary of Commerce, and officials of the War Trade Board and War Industries Board, about restrictions on commerce and American commercial developments in China, together with the men of the Shipping Board about trans-Pacific lines. Among great private organizations I conferred with members of the National City Bank; J.P. Morgan & Company; the Guaranty Trust Company of New York; Kuhn, Loeb & Company; the General Electric and American Locomotive companies; the Standard Oil Company of New York; the International Banking Corporation and American International Corporation; the Chase National Bank; the Siems-Carey Company; Pacific Development Corporation, and the Continental & Commercial Bank of Chicago.
The American policy with respect to Russia and Siberia had not been determined, and in interviews with President Wilson the Siberian problem, to which I had been very close, as well as Chinese finance, were subjects of particular attention. I showed to the President how the Chinese got loans for alleged industrial purposes; then, with the connivance of the lenders, instead of building railways and telephone systems, they diverted them to political or partisan ends. Thus Chinese credit and the authority of the Government were progressively weakened. Then foreigners would encroach, and in some fields American opportunity was in danger of being restricted or lost entirely. I wished to see the United States backing financially a sound programme of Chinese reorganization. That would accord with our traditions. But jealousies and friction were to be eliminated, hence I favoured the forming of an International Public Loan Consortium.
This would support the credit of the Chinese Government and put Chinese finance on a sound basis. Such a consortium would claim priority in making all administrative or political loans; but monopoly should be avoided by leaving contracts for building and supplies open to competition, and by letting outside financiers make industrial loans. Of course, the Consortium as the chief backer of China should have full information about industrial loans, and each government should engage to scrutinize all loans made by its nationals for industries. All this, at his request, went to the President in a memorandum submitted on the 14th of August.
With respect to Siberia and Russia, my information led me to believe that the Russian people might still be influenced to remain friendly to the Allies, so as to prevent the growth of German control. I had in mind, not intervention, but economic assistance. I urged a commission that would aid the Russian people to import the commodities they needed most. The Russian Coöperative societies were anxious for just such assistance; thus, their leaders believed, further unfavourable developments could be prevented. I knew the Russians to be universally friendly; any movement initiated by America would be received with extreme goodwill.
President Wilson seemed to wish something like this to be carried out. He even discussed with me what men were most likely to succeed in organizing so huge an enterprise. But he feared to place a representative of "big business" in such a position; men would suspect selfish national motives. I felt that he wished America to lead in giving the Russian people such aid in reorganizing their economic life as would permanently benefit them and preserve them for our common cause.
After many, many departments and boards were consulted, I found they were not thinking of China. Their chief problem was to train the American army and transport it to the western front. They did not care to get Chinese contingents there. This was the critical moment of the war. By comparison other interests shrivelled. As for financial advances to China, the Government found that China entered the war after the law authorizing advances was passed. A new law would be needed. To propose it would bring up the whole question of war policy. The temper of the day was to concentrate every effort on the greatest immediate show of strength on the west front. I appreciated all this, but I deeply regretted that a tiny rivulet out of the vast streams of financial strength directed to Europe could not pass to China. Even one thousandth part of the funds given to Europe, invested in building up China, would have prevented many disheartening and disastrous developments. For every dollar tenfold in value would have been gained in fortifying Chinese ability to help in the war and in the post-bellum recovery.