The Chinese cabinet, which had been under a provisional premier for several months, was finally reorganized in June, 1914. The chief change in the cabinet was the appointment of Mr. Liang Tun-yen as Minister of Communications, and the shifting of Mr. Chow Tsu-chi from that position to the Ministry of Finance. With these new ministers American contractors and financiers had much to do. Premier Hsiung Hsi-ling had withdrawn in February, and with him the two other members of the Chin Pu Tang or progressive party. These political leaders had served Yuan's purpose by aiding him to dissolve parliament; they could now be spared. But a new premier was not immediately found. Yuan at length prevailed on Mr. Hsu Shi-chang to take the premiership in June. The title of premier was changed to secretary of state.
I met Mr. Liang Tun-yen for the first time on June 2nd, at a luncheon given by Mr. B. Lenox Simpson, whose landlord he was. Mr. Liang is tall, aristocratic-looking, with a fine, intellectual face. He speaks English perfectly, as he received his earlier education in the United States. Then, as on frequent occasions in subsequent years, he expressed himself in a deeply pessimistic strain. He complained of recent inroads attempted by the French in Yunnan, and of the methods they employed to strengthen their hold. But this was only one cause for pessimism. In the future of his country he saw "no prospect of strong national action," or of "any sort of effective help from the outside." He considered the upper classes "incapable of sacrifices and vigorous action." He had recommended in 1901, he told me, that, instead of paying an indemnity, the Chinese should be allowed to spend an equal amount of public funds in sending abroad young men to be educated. All young Chinese, he said, should be sent abroad quite early, "before they have become corrupted."
When Mr. Liang Tun-yen assumed office, it was announced that he would subject the Ministry of Communications to a thorough cleansing. This implied that the ministry had been corrupt and systematically so, under the control of Mr. Liang Shih-yi. Outsiders watched for indications of how that astute manager would handle the new opposition.
Mr. Yeh Kung-cho, able and expert, had been chief of the Railway Bureau; he became a vice minister, but as he was a lieutenant of Liang Shih-yi's, it was understood that this position would probably be an empty dignity. A friend of Mr. Liang Tun-yen's, a highly respected engineer of American education, was appointed as the other vice minister. With no formal or open breach between the different factions, manœuvring and counter-manœuvring there undoubtedly was. The influence of Mr. Liang Shih-yi, however, seemed not seriously shaken. He had organized the Chinese railway experts and engineers in a railway association, keeping in touch with them through Mr. Yeh Kung-cho. Thus he held in his hands the main lines of influence. Also, he continued to head the Bank of Communications, which is the fiscal agency for the Railway Board. So again it seemed that the opposition could not get at the source of this unusual man's power.
Mr. Chow Tsu-chi, as Minister of Finance, warmly urged the idea that the Americans, to whom the Government had shown itself so friendly, reciprocate by making a loan to the Chinese Government. He planned a loan of $40,000,000 for the purpose of refunding the entire floating indebtedness of his government. Hopes had been entertained that the Standard Oil Company would use its influence in bringing about such a loan, but that company was not willing to go outside of the special business of its contract with China. The option which had been given to Mr. Gest had not yet resulted in any completed transaction in the United States. So accustomed were the Chinese to the readiness of any nationality which held important concessions, in turn to support the Chinese Government financially, that they could not understand how America, with professions of great friendship and just now substantially favoured by the Chinese, should not be ready to reciprocate. The soundness of the desire of the Americans to have every transaction stand on its own bottom and not to use financial support as a bait to obtain concessions, could, of course, be appreciated by the Chinese. But at times their urgent needs made them impatient.
The news of the assassination at Sarajevo reached us on July 1st. As this happened to be, though we did not then suspect it, the eve of a terrible convulsion in which all accepted conditions of life, national and international, were shattered and unsettled, I shall here insert parts of the memorandum which I drew up for my guidance at this time:
It is evident that China finds herself in a critical situation, in the sense that the fundamental character of her political life and the direction of her political development are now being decided. While a vast community living under a complicated social system, which embodies the experience of thousands of years, cannot change its methods of a sudden and will undoubtedly for a long time continue to differ radically from Western political societies, yet it admits of no doubt that a new era of development has begun and that certain essential alternatives are being faced. Such alternatives are the continued unity of the nation or its division; its continued independence or the direct dominance of one or more foreign suzerains; its commercial unity or its division into spheres of influence; the tendency of its institutions of government, whether in the direction of the absolutism of Russia and Japan, or the republicanism of the United States; and the character of its educational and legal system, either dominated by the ideas of America and England or of continental Europe or Japan. From these, there also follow important alternatives in industrial and commercial policy.
Under these circumstances, it is of great moment whether the Chinese Government will remain free, with the assistance of influences friendly to the development of China's nationality, to preserve the unity of the Chinese State and to develop its institutions; or whether its financial distress, combined with the plottings of a revolutionary opposition, will deliver it into the hands of those who are not favourable to the growth of China's national life.
The United States of America enjoys a position of great advantage for assisting the Chinese Government and influencing its development in the direction of free national life. The lack of a desire for political interference, the real sympathy felt in America with the strivings of the Chinese people, and cultural, educational, and charitable work unselfishly performed, have given the United States the undivided confidence of China. It is certainly true that the Chinese people are anxious to follow in the footsteps of the United States if they may only be permitted to do so.
Any development of enterprise which increases American commercial interest in China is incidentally favourable to Chinese independence; because, through the enlistment of neutral interests, the desire of outsiders for political control can be counterbalanced. The organizing of an American investment bank and similar agencies for the development of American commerce in China, participation of American capital in railway building, and the development of mines and oil fields through American companies and under American business methods would all be welcomed by China as the strengthening of a favourable influence. Different Chinese ministers have repeatedly said to me that at this time China is in need of the active assistance of those who are amicably disposed and that China is willing to do her part in coöperating, and in extending advantages, if only such active support is forthcoming. If American capital, industry, and commerce are not ready at this time to give that comparatively slight assistance to China which the situation calls for, it is likely that American action in China in the future will be on a far more modest basis than present possibilities promise.
The war, of course, brought many changes in China. Much of the good work which had been started was either destroyed or long delayed. It marked the end of one phase of China's development.