After agreeing to important concessions in Manchuria and Shantung, the Chinese determined to resist further demands. Just here the American Government gave the Japanese ambassador at Washington its opinion that certain clauses in the demands contravened existing treaty provisions. For the Japanese ambassador had offered a supplementary memorandum which substantially gave the proposals of Group V as "requests for friendly consideration." They were "mere suggestions" to the Chinese! This method of disarming foreign opposition imposed one disadvantage—it would hereafter hardly do actually to use military force to coerce China into accepting the "friendly suggestions" contained in Group V. The only chance of getting these concessions was to keep the other governments in uncertainty as to the actual demands, that they might not take them seriously, and meanwhile to bring pressure to bear in order to force Peking to accept these very proposals. The Chinese would feel themselves abandoned by the public opinion of the world.
The Japanese increased their military forces in Manchuria and Shantung during the second half of March; for a time the movement stopped the ordinary traffic on the Shantung Railway.
The new troops were "merely to relieve those now stationed in Chinese territory," it was stated. Military compulsion was clearly foreshadowed; and thus beset, the Chinese had by the end of March almost entirely accepted the Japanese demands in Shantung and Manchuria. I had a long interview with President Yuan Shih-kai on March 23rd. He seemed greatly worried but was still good-humoured. He said: "The buzzing gnats disturb my sleep, but they have not yet carried off my rice. So I can live." Then growing serious he went on: "I am prepared to make all possible concessions. But they must not diminish Chinese independence. Japan's acts may force upon me a different policy."
I wondered whether he was actually contemplating armed resistance. "Against any action taken by Japan, America will not protest, so the Japanese officials tell us. But the Japanese have often tried to discourage the Chinese by such statements," he added. "They say: 'America has no interest in the Chinese'; or, 'America cannot help you even if she wishes to.'"
Yuan felt that if America could only say, gently but firmly: "Such matters concerning foreign rights in China, in which we have an interest by treaties, policy, and traditions, cannot be discussed without our participation," the danger would largely dissolve.
Certain possible solutions were now suggested by the Department of State. They aimed to bestow desired benefits on Japan, but also to protect China and the interests of other nations in China. Personally, I felt that the demands of Group V should be wholly eliminated. Any version of them would tangle, would more inextricably snarl, the already complicated relationships of foreign powers in China, and choke all constructive American action.
The Japanese demands respecting Manchuria were substantially complied with during early April; and the Chinese thought this part of the negotiations closed. Not so the Japanese; they manœuvred to keep open the Manchurian question on points of detail. Meanwhile, they persistently injected Group V into the negotiations.
For over two months the negotiations had now gone on with two or three long conferences every week. The furnishing of war materials, Fukien Province, and pointed references to a "certain power"—meaning the United States—occupied the Japanese part of the discussion on April 6th. The Japanese minister was strikingly peremptory in manner. Because of the pretensions of this "certain power" he must insist on the demands regarding harbours and dockyards. Control, direct or indirect, of any naval base in Fukien must be frustrated, for the sake both of China and of Japan. The present American administration might withdraw its "pretensions"; but what if they should be resumed in future? The only safe course was to exclude this power from any possibility of getting such a foothold. Meanwhile, local Japanese-edited papers harped upon the great influence which Ambassador Chinda was alleged to wield over Secretary Bryan. It would be futile to hope, they insisted, that America might in any way assert herself in support of China.
At this time I informed the Chinese Minister for Foreign Affairs that should the attitude or policy of the United States be mentioned by any foreign representative, and should statements be made as to what the American Government would or would not admit, demand, or insist upon, the Chinese Government would be more than justified in taking up such a matter directly with the representative of the United States, through whom alone authoritative statements as to the action of his government could be made.
The American Government had filed with the Japanese strong objections to the granting of any special preference to any one nation in Fukien. It had also emphasized the right of its citizens to make contracts with the central and provincial Chinese governments, without interference and without being regarded as unfriendly by a third power. So far as harbours and naval bases were concerned, as stated previously, the American Government did not object to any arrangement whereby China would withhold such concessions from any and all foreign powers. But Japan needed to allege some reason for making special demands with respect to Fukien; therefore it alleged the machinations of a "certain power."