Everybody thought that the monarchy was to be proclaimed on New Year's Day, 1916. Disaffection, it was realized, though hitherto confined to a remote province, might spread; delay was dangerous. Business in the Yangtse Valley and elsewhere was dull. Merchants blamed the Central Government, and murmurings were heard. General Feng Kuo-chang, who had at first encouraged Yuan Shih-kai, now reserved his independence of action.
The revolt remained localized in Yunnan throughout January. With the rise of an opposition, Yuan was now more ready to accentuate the constitutional character of the new monarchy. His Minister of Finance, Mr. Chow Tsu-chi, told me that a constitutional convention would be convoked when the monarchy was proclaimed. This would provide a representative assembly and a responsible cabinet. Constructive reforms were to be announced. No further patents of nobility were to be awarded, the titles already granted would be treated as purely military honours.
If Yuan and his advisers had acted boldly at this time in promulgating the monarchy, recognition by a number of powers would probably have followed, especially as the continuity of the personnel of the Government made recognition easier. But hesitation and delay strengthened the opposition. Yunnanese troops had by the end of January penetrated into the neighbouring provinces of Szechuan and Kuangsi. To learn what was going on in these provinces I sent the military attaché, Major Newell, up the Yangtse River to Szechuan, and the naval attaché, Lieut.-Commander Hutchins, to Canton. Efforts of the generals loyal to Yuan to expel the Yunnanese from Szechuan Province were unsuccessful.
After the peculiarly complex manner of Chinese political relationships, Yunnan began to exercise an influence in Szechuan Province which was to last for years. The Yunnanese were protected by natural barriers of mountains; to make headway against them was difficult, even had the troops of the President shown greater energy. How hollow was the unanimity which had been proclaimed in the November elections now became thoroughly apparent. Encouraged by the open opposition, ill-will against Yuan Shih-kai began to be shown in other localities, particularly in Hunan and in the southernmost provinces, Kuangsi and Kuangtung. Rivalries hitherto held in check by Yuan's strong hand also came to the fore. In central China the two men holding the greatest military power, Generals Feng Kuo-chang and Chang Hsun, began to cherish resentment against the President; for, in exchanging notes upon meeting, they discovered that Yuan had set each of them to watch the other.
Even now the monarchical movement might have gained strength from the moderates, who feared the Japanese. They did not wish to see the national unity disrupted. "Get a constitution and a representative legislature," they advised Yuan Shih-kai; "put in play a constructive programme of state action; reform the finances and the audit, simplify the taxes, extend works of public use, build roads, reclaim lands, develop agriculture and industry, and all might yet be well." Mr. Liang Shih-yi and Mr. Chow Tsu-chi hoped, once the question of succession was definitely settled, to "put in commission" the dictatorial power of Yuan. As Mr. Chow this time put it: "Yuan will have the seat of honour but others will order the meal."
Toward the end of January the formal proclamation of the empire was further postponed. Mr. Chow Tsu-chi was to go on a special mission to Japan, probably to induce the Japanese Government to be more favourable to the new monarchy, and to bear handsome concessions to the Japanese. But the Japanese Government declared that for personal reasons the Emperor of Japan could not receive a Chinese embassy at that time. Possibly various other concessionaire governments intimated to Japan that they did not expect her to entertain any special proposals at this time. Nevertheless, the Japanese must have made strong representations to cause Yuan Shih-kai, who was a decisive and determined man, to risk all by hesitating at this critical moment.
To present some Americans I called on Yuan Shih-kai on February 16th. Mr. and Mrs. Ulysses S. Grant were visiting Peking, and Yuan was glad to have me present the son of the famous American President who had himself visited China and established cordial relations with Li Hung-chang, Yuan's great master. Significantly the President said to Mr. Grant: "Your honoured father had great power, but he could safely resign it to others when the time came. You have great political experience in the West." It was quite a little party, including the newly appointed commercial attaché, Mr. Julean H. Arnold; the commandant of the guard, Colonel Wendell C. Neville; and two young writers, Miss Emerson and Miss Weil, who have since devoted themselves to Far Eastern studies and literary work. While the Emperor-elect betrayed traces of strain and worry, he had his accustomed genial manners. Apropos of the commercial attaché and the commandant he made a little pleasantry about commerce and war coming hand in hand. After a brief interview the visitors were taken by the master of ceremonies to see the gardens, while I remained with Yuan Shih-kai for a long conversation. This was interpreted by Doctor Tenney and by Dr. Hawkling L. Yen, of the Foreign Office; it was understood by us all that the conversation was personal and unofficial.
"I have not sought new honours and responsibilities, but now that a course of action has been formally decided upon, it is my duty to carry it out," Yuan said. "The people coöperated in this, I desire that they shall coöperate at all times."
I asked how soon he would announce definitely his constitutional policy. I had some doubt as to how far he intended to apply any, and his answer was evasive. "It is hard," he replied, "to make a constitution before the monarchy is actually reëstablished. Then, too, if the Emperor heads the Government, the powers of departments under him would need to be more restricted than under a republic." His advisers, it seemed, were unduly optimistic in expecting Yuan to stand squarely for constitutional government, with power devolving on the parliament and the different departments. I reminded him of the British monarchy in its various historic forms to refute his idea.
"Well," he responded, "the new constitution must wait for a People's Convention. This is soon to be called; its action must not be in any way anticipated."