Personal Considerations.
The truest answer may be that the fate of the throne depends far more on the qualities of a single individual than does the fate of the other august English institutions. A very good, wise, and prudent king would make the throne last during a long reign; a bad, incompetent, foolish king would certainly unsettle and perhaps overturn it. In the nineteenth century the person who has done most for the English monarchy began her work as a girl, and said to Spring Rice fifty years ago, “Never mention the word ‘trouble.’ Only tell me how the thing is to be done, to be done rightly, and I will do it if I can”[34] It is possible, however, that Her Majesty’s reign, though it has immensely strengthened the throne for the present, may have unexpected consequences. Whilst it lasts, the country is the happiest of republics, enjoying complete liberty under the presidency of the person most respected in the State. To go back, after that, to a condition of real subjection under a masterful and meddlesome king, is more than the English people would ever be likely to endure. It remains a question, too, whether the country would endure a king who, without being what might be called a tyrant, was simply determined to make his position a reality. Suppose, for example, that instead of being a minister, Lord Salisbury, with his governing instincts, had been king. He would have attempted to control many things, but would the loyalty of the country have borne the strain? What thoughtful English people say now in private, amounts to this: that the Queen will certainly remain undisturbed, that her son will probably have a quiet reign, and reap the fruits of his unsparing personal work, but that beyond him nothing is known. The old positive certainty about the duration of the monarchy in England, whatever the quality of the monarch, has given place to personal considerations.
A Future Radical Party.
There is another possibility that may lead to anything but settled rest and peace. The country may divide itself into two extreme parties: the advocates of a really strong monarchy, with an active, ruling king, may be opposed to a vigorous radical party that would then be openly republican. If ever this should come to pass, it is hard to see how civil disturbance could be avoided. A determined sovereign, under such circumstances, might proclaim himself Emperor, not only of India, but of Great Britain, and the Gladstone of the day might answer that move by bold republicanism in the House of Commons.
The Future of France.
Present Desire for Rest in France.
Extinction of the Royalist Sentiment.
The future of France has now rather better prospects of stability, or might have them, if the effects of the next war with Germany were not so difficult to foresee. The reason is not because the French are less fickle than the English, but simply because they have got through more of the long revolutionary process, so that the new order is more under the protection of popular conservative instincts. There is also a strong desire for rest, a weariness of change after the most disturbed century of the national existence. The single wish of the people is to pursue their avocations in peace, and if the plain truth must be told, they have no longer the old capacity for political enthusiasm. The genuine royalist sentiment is almost extinct; if it lingers at all, it is only in a few aristocratic families, and hardly even in these since the death of Henri V. deprived it alike of object and aliment. Even the Count of Paris himself does not reverence the Divine Right of royalty in his own person, since he condescends to bid against the Bonapartists for democratic acceptance.
Coolness of French Republican Sentiment. Coolness of the Young.
Coolness a Sign of settled Possession.