Fears of the United States
The consumption of oil is rising at a terrific rate. Entire branches of industry are transformed, and it may be said that all modern transport is increasingly dependent upon the use of the new fuel. Automobilism and aviation owe their existence to it. Not only do steam engines tend to give place to the oil motor in a great number of cases, but they themselves begin to use oil instead of coal. Locomotives and the engines of ships more and more seek the source of their energy in oil. No more smoke, no more troublesome ash, and double the calorific power. The work of a fireman, formerly so exhausting, is reduced to the opening and closing of a tap. If coal is replaced by mazut in the furnaces of ships, their radius of action is increased by 50 per cent.; it is more than tripled if the internal-combustion engine is used. Certain British engineers are not afraid to assert that one ton of mazut, used in a Diesel engine for ships, is equivalent to at least six tons of coal.
Few countries hesitate in face of such advantages. Since 1885 the railways of Southern Russia have been run on oil; those of Rumania since 1887. The railway companies of the United States consumed 20 million barrels even in 1909—that is, one-tenth of the production at that time. And the last few years have been marked by the conclusion of contracts by the United States Railroad Administration for the delivery of 50 million barrels. The engines of the Southern Pacific Railway have been aptly described as veritable monsters. Their boilers are two metres in diameter and fourteen and a half metres long. Their heating-surface is double that of ordinary locomotives. The driver's place is in front, which allows him to see the track.
Mexico has long since followed the example set by the United States. So also has Austria for her Alpine railways. France has made experiments which have been much talked of; and the Argentine, only a few months ago, has concluded important contracts with the Shell Transport and Trading Company for the supply of oil for her railways. Everywhere the substitution of oil for coal is going on, and consumption is developing with such rapidity that the supply is no longer anything like equal to the demand. Even if Russia recovered, the discrepancy between the needs of the world and the quantity available would be considerable. That is why the price of liquid fuel, which requires little labour in its production, remains so high.
Since North America supplies 80 per cent. of the world production, the dollar has become the standard currency for oil. At the present time, Rumanian oil, delivered in Hungary, is sold at the same price as American oil. The market-price is therefore fixed for the whole world by New York.
Very few people realize at all clearly what will be the consumption of oil in a few years' time. It is natural enough, for it is only a short time since our great and instructive Press began—very timidly, however—to entertain its readers with this burning topic. There is no one, at present, who does not know that the question of fuel is of supreme importance to the whole industrial life of Europe.
Now, the world-production of coal was, in 1920, about 100 million tons short, compared with the production in 1913. The directors of colliery companies endeavour to increase the output of the mines, but they obtain in general only disappointing results, which is not strange when we observe the increasing number of miners' strikes, the rise in wages, and the fact that laws are continually passed to reduce the hours of labour.
In producing steam, one ton of mazut gives almost the same result as two tons of coal; more than 50 million tons of fuel-oil are therefore required to make good this enormous deficit.
Now, in 1919 the world production of mazut did not exceed 75 million tons. After making good the shortage of coal, this would leave only 25 million tons to satisfy the ordinary demand. This comparison of figures makes clear how great is the need of oil, at a time when the use of oil, in preference to coal, is becoming more and more the order of the day. Now, the great and general increase in consumption is not equalled by the production which, though far from stationary, is none the less much below the needs which are predicted for the future in competent circles. An American oil journal recently published the following figures for the consumption of the United States:—