It is 4½ to 1 against filling a four-card flush. It is 23 to 1 against filling a three-card flush. It is 95 to 1 against filling a two-card flush.
It is 3 to 1 against improving a four-card straight flush which is open at both ends. The chances against getting the straight or the flush have been given; the odds against getting the straight flush are 24 to 1. The chance for getting a pair exists; but the pair would probably be worthless.
It is 4 to 1 against improving a four-card straight flush open in the middle, or at one end only; the odds against getting the straight flush being 46 to 1.
There are several minor or speculative draws which may be of interest. Drawing to an ace and a King, it is 3 to 1 against making a pair of either. It is 4 to 1 against making a pair of aces by drawing four cards to an ace; and 12 to 1 against making aces up, or better. It is 24 to 1 against making a straight by drawing to three cards of it, open at both ends. It is 12 to 1 against making either a straight or a flush by drawing to three cards of a straight flush, open at both ends.
HOW TO WIN AT POKER. There have been many alleged infallible receipts for winning at Poker. Proctor thought that refusing to go in on less than triplets would prove a certainty; but in the same paragraph he acknowledges that the adversaries would soon learn the peculiarity, and avoid betting against the player. Triplets before the draw occur about once in every 45 hands. If five were playing, a person following Proctor’s advice would have to blind 9 times, and ante in at least 12 jack pots in every 45 hands, to say nothing of fattening. This means an outlay of at least 75 counters. When the triplets come, will he get back 75 counters on them? He will probably win the blind, and one or two antes; but the moment he makes his own ante good, every player who cannot beat triplets, knowing his system, will lay down his hand.
An extensive observation of the methods of the best players has led the author to the conclusion that the great secret of success in Poker, apart from natural aptitude for the game, and being a good actor, is to avoid calling. If you think you have the best hand, raise. If you think you have not the best, lay it down. Although you may sometimes lay down a better hand than the one that takes the pool, the system will prove of immense advantage to you in two ways: In the first place, you will find it a great educator of the judgment; and in the second place, it will take almost any opponent’s nerve. Once an adversary has learned your method, it is not a question of his betting a red chip on his hand; but of his willingness to stand a raise of two blues, which he will regard as inevitable if you come in against him at all. The fear of this raise will prompt many a player to lay down a moderately good hand without a bet; so that you have all the advantage of having made a strong bluff without having put up a chip. The system will also drive all but the most courageous to calling your hand on every occasion, being afraid of a further and inevitable raise; and it is an old saying that a good caller is a sure loser.
The theory of calling is to get an opportunity to compare your hand with your adversary’s. Now, if you think that after the comparison yours will prove the better hand, why not increase the value of the pool? If, on the contrary, you fear that his hand will beat yours, why throw good money after bad? If you don’t think at all about it, and have no means of forming an opinion as to the respective merits of your hands, you are not a poker player, and have no business in the game.
BLUFFING. There is nothing connected with Poker on which persons have such confused ideas as on the subject of bluffing. The popular impression seems to be that a stiff upper lip, and a cheerful expression of countenance, accompanied by a bet of five dollars, will make most people lay down three aces; and that this result will be brought about by the five-dollar bet, without any regard to the player’s position at the table, the number of cards he drew, his manner of seeing or raising the ante, or the play of his adversaries before the draw. The truth of the matter is that for a bluff to be either sound in principle or successful in practice, the player must carefully select his opportunity. The bluff must be planned from the start, and consistently played from the ante to the end. To use a common expression: “The play must be right for it, or the bluff will be wrong.”
There are many cases in which a bluff of fifty cents would be much stronger than one of five dollars; the difference depending on the player’s position at the table, his treatment of the ante, and the number of cards he had drawn. As an example of the play being right for a bluff, take the following case: Five play in a jack pot. A and B have passed when C opens it for the limit. D and E pass out, but A and B both stay, and each draws one card. C takes two cards, and as it is his first bet he puts up the limit on his three aces. A drops out, but B raises C the limit in return. Now, if C is a good player he will lay down his three aces, even if he faintly suspects B is bluffing, because B’s play is sound in any case. He either could not, or pretended he could not open the jack; but he could afford to pay the limit to draw one card against openers, and he could afford to raise the limit against an opener’s evidently honest two-card draw. As a matter of fact the whole play was a bluff; for B not only had nothing, but had nothing to draw to originally.