LEADING HEARTS ORIGINALLY. When your hearts are so small as to be absolutely safe, such as the 7 5 3 2, it might be supposed that the best play would be to lead them at once, in order to get a large number of hearts out of your way. But with such cards it is usually much better play, unless you have a very dangerous hand in plain suits, to reserve these small hearts until you have a more definite idea, from the fall of the cards, to whom you are giving them. Such cards are particularly useful for getting rid of the lead at dangerous stages in the end-game.
When the plain-suit cards are high or dangerous, but the hearts are reasonably safe, it is usually better to lead the hearts, and to continue leading them every time you get in. By following these tactics it is quite possible for you to take almost every trick in the plain suits, and yet to win the pool by rapidly exhausting the hearts.
If you lead the ♡ 4, the only chance for it to win is that one player has no hearts, and that the 2 and 3 are divided. The odds against this combination of circumstances will vary with the number of hearts you hold with the 4, but may be generally stated on the average as about 50 to 1. It is usually considered a safer lead than a high card of a plain suit, even if you have only three of the suit.
If your only heart is the 5, and you propose to lead it, the chances that the 2, 3, and 4 are not each in separate hands are about 19 in 25, or 19 to 6 against it, which is about 3 to 1. If you lead the 5, the odds against your winning the trick decrease as the number of hearts you hold with the 5 increases. If you have four hearts, the 5 being the lowest, the odds against its winning the trick, if you lead it, are about 29 to 11. If you have eight hearts, the 5 being the lowest, it is about an even chance. If your only heart is the 6, it is about an even chance that it will win the trick; but the odds against you increase rapidly with the number of additional hearts that you hold. If you propose to lead the 7, the chances that it will win the trick are 2 to 1 under the most favourable circumstances, which are when it is your only heart. These odds against you increase rapidly with the number of additional hearts that you hold.
LEADING PLAIN SUITS ORIGINALLY. It will often happen that you will have to decide between the lead of a comparatively dangerous heart and a risky plain suit. Your knowledge of probabilities should enable you to select the safer course. The odds against getting a heart on the first round of a plain suit depend upon how many cards of the suit you hold. If you lead an Ace, or any card which is sure to win the trick, the odds against your getting a heart on it are as the following:—
| If you have | 4 | cards of the suit, | 22 to 1. |
| ” | 5 | ” | 15 to 1. |
| ” | 6 | ” | 7 to 1. |
| ” | 7 | ” | 4 to 1. |
| ” | 8 | ” | 2 to 1. |
These odds may be slightly increased by taking into account the fact that players who cannot follow suit do not always discard hearts, having perhaps more dangerous cards to get rid of.
The odds against a suit going round a second time may be influenced by the cards played to the first round; but it sometimes happens that you have to calculate in advance for two rounds of a suit, regardless of the cards that may be played by others. This is especially the case when you fear that the suit will be led to you, and you have such cards as must win two rounds. If you have 4 cards of the suit the odds against your getting a heart in two rounds are 2 to 1. The odds in favour of your getting a heart in two rounds are:—
| If you have | 5 | cards of the suit, | 4 to 3. |
| ” | 6 | ” | 2 to 1. |
| ” | 7 | ” | 6 to 1. |