Speaking generally, and neglecting all the complexities which delight the soul of the astronomer, this is Delisle’s method of utilising a transit. It has obviously one serious disadvantage as compared with the other. An observer at one side of the earth has to bring his observations into comparison with those made by an observer at the other side of the earth. Each uses the local time of the place at which he observes, and it has been calculated that for the result to be of value there must not be an error of a single second in their estimates of local time. Now, does the reader appreciate the full force of this proviso? Each observer must know so certainly in what exact longitude he is, that his estimate of the time when true noon occurs shall not be one second wrong! This is all satisfactory enough in places where there are regular observatories. But matters are changed when we are dealing with such places as Woahoo, Kerguelen Land, Chatham Island, and the wilds of Siberia.
In the transit[3] of 1874 there are many such difficulties to be encountered. In fact, it is almost impossible to conceive a transit the circumstances of which are more inconvenient. On the other hand, however, the transit is of such a nature that if once the preliminary difficulties are overcome, we can hope more from its indications than from those of any other transit which will happen in the course of the next few centuries.
The transit will begin earliest for observers in the neighbourhood of the Sandwich Islands, latest for observers near Crozet Island, far to the south-east of the Cape of Good Hope. It ends earliest for observers far to the south-west of Cape Horn, latest for observers in the north-eastern part of European Russia. Thus we see that, so far as the application of our second method is concerned, the suitable spots are not situated in the most inviting regions of the earth’s surface. As the transit happens on December 8, 1874, the principal northern stations will be very bleak abodes for the observers. The southern stations are in yet more dreary regions,—notwithstanding the fact that the transit occurs during the summer of the southern hemisphere.
For the application of Halley’s method we require stations where the whole transit will be visible; and as the days are very short at the northern stations in December, it is as respects these that we encounter most difficulty. However, it has been found that many places in Northern China, Japan, Eastern Siberia, and Manchouria are suitable for the purpose. The best southern stations for this method lie unfortunately on the unexplored Antarctic continent and the islands adjacent to it; but Crozet Island, Kerguelen Land, and some other places more easy of access than the Antarctic continent, will serve very well. Indeed, England has so many stations to occupy elsewhere that it is doubtful whether she will care to undertake the dangerous and difficult task of exploring the Antarctic wastes to secure the best southern stations. The work may fairly be left to other nations, and doubtless will be efficiently carried out.
What England will actually undertake has not yet been fully decided upon. We may be quite certain that she will send out a party to Woahoo or Hawaii to observe the accelerated commencement of the transit. She will also send observers to watch the retarded commencement, but whether to Crozet Island, Kerguelen Land, Mauritius, or Rodriguez is uncertain. Possibly two parties will be sent out for this purpose, and most likely Rodriguez and Mauritius will be the places selected. It had been thought until lately that the sun would be too low at some of the places when the transit begins, but a more exact calculation of the circumstances of the transit has shown this to be a mistake. Both Crozet Island and Kerguelen Land are very likely to be enveloped in heavy mists when the transit begins—that is, soon after sunrise—hence the choice of Mauritius and Rodriguez as the most suitable station.
England will also be called on to take an important part in observing the accelerated end of the transit. A party will probably be sent to Chatham Island or Campbell Island, not far from New Zealand. It had been thought that at the former island the sun would be too low; but here, again, a more exact consideration of the circumstances of the transit has led astronomers to the conclusion that the sun will be quite high enough at this station.
The Russian observers are principally concerned with the observation of the retarded end of the transit, nearly all the best stations lying in Siberia. But there are several stations in British India where this phase can be very usefully observed; and doubtless the skilful astronomers and mathematicians who are taking part in the survey of India will be invited—as at the time of the great eclipse—to give their services in the cause of science. Alexandria, also, though inferior to several of the Indian stations, will probably be visited by an observing party from England.
It will be seen that England will thus be called on to supply about half-a-dozen expeditions to view the transit. All of these will be sent out in pursuance of Delisle’s mode of utilising a transit, so that, for reasons already referred to, it will be necessary that they should be provided with instruments of the utmost delicacy, and very carefully constructed.[4] They will have to remain at their several stations for a long time before the transit takes place—several months, at least—so that they may accurately determine the latitude of the temporary observatories they will erect. This is a work requiring skilled observers and recondite processes of calculation. Hence it is that the cost of sending out these observing parties is so considerable.
The only English party which will apply Halley’s method of observation is the one which will be stationed at Mauritius, under Lord Lindsay. This part of their work will be comparatively easy, the method only requiring that the duration of the transit should be carefully timed. In fact, one of the great advantages of Halley’s method is the smallness of the expense it involves. A party might land the day before the transit, and sail away the day after, with results at least as trustworthy as those which a party applying Delisle’s method could obtain after several months of hard work. It is to this, rather than any other cause, that the small expense of the observations made in 1769 is to be referred. And doubtless had it been decided by our astronomical authorities to apply Halley’s method solely or principally, the expense of the transit-observations would have been materially lessened. There would, however, have been a risk of failure through the occurrence of bad weather at the critical stations; whereas now—as other nations will doubtless avail themselves of Halley’s method—the chance that the transit-observations will fail through meteorological causes is very largely diminished. Science will owe much to the generosity of England in this respect.
It is, indeed, only recently that the possibility of applying Halley’s method has been recognised. It had been thought that the method must fail totally in 1874. But on a more careful examination of the circumstances of the transit, a French astronomer, M. Puiseux, was enabled to announce that this is not the case. Almost simultaneously I published calculations pointing to a similar result; but having carried the processes a few steps further than M. Puiseux, I was able to show that Halley’s method is not only available in 1874, but is the more powerful method of the two.